Relievers. Who are they? What do they do? Until one bright spring day in 1993, nobody knew the answers to these simple questions. Then, MLB scientists made a breakthrough in their labs in the bowels of the Astrodome, and Mariano Rivera sprung forth from his mother’s womb fully formed and sawed off Jason Giambi. But the question they couldn’t answer is ‘what is the best season ever by a reliever?’. At the time, the technology was simply not expansive enough to begin delving into this question. Now, thanks to huge leaps in science, we can finally answer something that has plagued the minds of man since the dawn of humanity.
Now, clearly, the answer is Francisco Rodriguez, since he’s the single season save leader and that’s the best stat to measure relievers by. But let’s ignore that.
You can just look up which reliever has the most WAR in a single season, which is 1975 Goose Gossage by bWAR (8.2!?!?!) or 1977 Bruce Sutter by fWAR (5.2). The reason for this difference is because BaseballReference uses runs allowed to calculate bWAR, and FanGraphs uses FIP to calculate fWAR. Since relievers pitch such small sample sizes, there’s often a large gap between their FIP and their runs allowed (RA). Since we’re looking at the best season, and not the best player, I’m going to use bWAR (and thus RA) for this exercise.
(If you don’t know what FIP is, it stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, which looks at only the outcomes of at-bats which are solely between the pitcher and the batter - home runs, walks, and strikeouts. These stats are thrown together and then given a normalizing factor so that the average league FIP matches the average league ERA. FIP is a wonderful predictive tool, to the point where it is more predictive of a pitcher’s ERA next year than a pitcher’s ERA is. I’d rather not use it here because it doesn’t look at the actual results - if I was trying to find the best reliever, and not the best season, then I’d use FIP.)
Using a simple value added stat is incredibly biased towards 1970’s middle relievers who would throw 100+ innings in a year, though. WAR is a counting stat, so the more they pitch, the more they rack up. What about bWAIP? One BBRef search later, and I have this table.

Player	bWAR	bWA100IP	IP	Year	Tm
Ted Abernathy	6.2	5.84	106.1	1967	CIN
Steve Mingori	3.3	5.87	56.2	1971	CLE
Michael Jackson	3.8	5.94	64.0	1998	CLE
Bruce Sutter	6.5	6.07	107.1	1977	CHC
Jose Mesa	3.9	6.09	64.0	1995	CLE
Zack Britton	4.1	6.11	67.0	2016	BAL
Mariano Rivera	4.3	6.13	70.2	2008	NYY
John Hiller	7.9	6.31	125.1	1973	DET
Terry Fox	3.7	6.38	58.0	1962	DET
Jonathan Papelbon	5.0	7.34	68.1	2006	BOS

This is the top 10 relief seasons by bWA100IP, minimum 45 IP. This is a fairly tight pack all the way up until the final entry, where Papelbon’s 2006 leads by near 1bWA100IP. This seems like a good candidate for the best relief year ever.
(Interestingly enough, Bill James’ list of the 100 best reliever seasons ever, written in 2007, doesn’t include Jonathan Papelbon’s 2006 season. Joe Nathan’s 2006, where Nathan pitched the same number of innings and had a much worse ERA, made the list at #27. This is a reminder that Bill James is a fallible human being.)
So, if your criteria for best year by a reliever is bWA100IP, then the best option, by far, is Jonathan Papelbon. But before we look at the other options, here’s why Papelbon’s season was the best.
There have been nine reliever seasons (min. 40 IP) with a lower ERA than Papelbon’s 2006 0.92. Why aren’t they higher in bWAIP?

Player	WAR	IP	ERA	Year	Tm	R	ER
Zack Britton	4.1	67.0	0.54	2016	BAL	7	4
Joey Devine	1.9	45.2	0.59	2008	OAK	7	3
Fernando Rodney	3.7	74.2	0.60	2012	TBR	9	5
Dennis Eckersley	3.3	73.1	0.61	1990	OAK	9	5
Rob Murphy	2.5	50.1	0.72	1986	CIN	4	4
Rich Gossage	2.3	46.2	0.77	1981	NYY	6	4
Blake Treinen	4.1	80.1	0.78	2018	OAK	12	7
Bill Henry	2.5	52.0	0.87	1964	CIN	9	5
Dennys Reyes	2.2	50.2	0.89	2006	MIN	8	5
Jonathan Papelbon	5.0	68.1	0.92	2006	BOS	8	7

To begin with, bWAR uses RA for its calculations, which uses both earned and unearned runs. Dennys Reyes, Bill Henry, Blake Treinen, Rich Gossage, Fernando Rodney, Dennis Eckersley, and Joey Devine all had more RA/IP in their respective seasons. (The difference between their ERA and their bWAIP isn’t solely explained by this, but it’s good enough for now. We’ll get to that in a moment). This leaves 1986 Rob Murphy and 2016 Zach Britton. Why don’t they stack up?
The answer is a little thing I’d like to call ‘run environment’, which is encapsulated by BaseballReference’s stat RA9Avg. It takes what an average pitcher’s run allowed/9 innings (RA/9) was that year, and then adjusts it for park factors, for the defense, and for who that specific pitcher faced. If a pitcher had a relatively high run environment, it means he would be pitching in batter’s parks, faced tough opponents, had a bad defense behind him, etc. For a perfectly average pitcher, their RA/9 will match their run environment.
For Murphy, his run environment was 4.11. For Britton, it was 4.32. For Papelbon, it was a whopping 5.00. This makes a huge difference - Papelbon may have gotten slightly worse results, but he was starting from a much more difficult positions.
For another good way to illuminate the differences run environments can cause, I can bring up one of my favorite WAR comparisons! In 1965, Jim Maloney equalled Sandy Koufax in bWAR (and surpassed him if you count batting WAR) despite throwing 80 fewer innings with an ERA 0.50 higher. How did he do this? Simple. Sandy Koufax played in cavernous Dodger Stadium with a strong Dodger defense behind him, and so had a run environment of 3.49 RA/9. Jim Maloney, pitching at batter-friendly Crosley Stadium with a poor Reds defense behind him, had a run environment of 4.34, 0.85 more than Koufax. Since Maloney is expected to give up far more runs than Koufax and only gives up somewhat more runs, he has a large bWAIP lead.
Run environment is 99% of the explanation behind ‘why does WAR give this weird result?’ questions.
Most of the best reliever seasons by ERA have relatively a low run environment - after all, good defense and a friendly park factor really helps a reliever keep the runs down. Fernando Rodney had a run environment of 3.72 in his 0.60 ERA season, because he pitched at the Tropicana and had the Rays defense behind him. Mariano Rivera consistently had a high run environment (career average of 4.72) due to pitching in Yankee Stadium with horrible, horrible, horrible Yankees defenses behind him going against tough AL East opponents. He never had that ‘lucky’ season with a sub-1 ERA, which would likely have put him on this list. He has to live with the stigma of simply being the greatest reliever of all time, unfortunately. Papelbon had an incredible season in a run environment that was incredibly ill-suited for having an incredible season, so his bWAIP is leaps and bounds ahead of anyone else.
So is Jonathan Papelbon’s 2006 the greatest single season by a reliever ever? Well, maybe. Pound-for-pound, it certainly is. But some relievers can pound more often than others, even if they're not pounding quite as hard. Should 70’s and 80’s relievers be penalized for being slightly worse in twice as many innings as Papelbon? John Hiller’s 1973 is a good candidate if you prefer quantity over quality - 7.9 bWAR in 125 innings in relief. Of course, you can flip it around - why penalize Papelbon for pitching less when relievers of that era were expected to pitch less? With the bWAIP, it’s safe to say Papelbon was more dominant in his role than Hiller was in his.
Are there arguments for other pitchers and other seasons? Absolutely. Perhaps you prefer FIP for some reason - then you can probably give the nod to 2003 Eric Gagne, with 4.7 fWAR in 82 innings. I don’t think FIP works well for this type of analysis, because it doesn’t deal with actual results, but you do you. Perhaps you want to dive into BABIP and pick a season that wasn't as lucky - this seems like a fool's errand, since the best reliever seasons are all lucky ones.
Of course, if you believe the best ability is availability, the nod goes to Mike Marshall, who appeared in 106 (!?!) games for the 1974 Dodgers. His 2.42 ERA is tarnished somewhat by the 3.33 run environment at Dodger Stadium at the time, however. Marshall apparently still has very interesting ideas on training to be able to pitch that many innings, but no MLB training staff will let him near their pitchers for some reason.
Now, I know we’d all like someone else to have the best relief season ever in baseball - someone who didn’t attack teammates, someone who didn’t watch porn in the clubhouse, someone who doesn’t hit Manny Macha - ok, I’m fine with that one. But why couldn’t it have been someone like Eric Gagne, or Robb Nen, or Heathcliff Slocumb? I don’t think I’ve ever heard anything negative about those guys. Maybe it’s just time to move on, and let bygones be bygones.
As I understand, Papelbon is just 24 hours from picking a new team, so it’ll be exciting to see him back in the league. Hopefully, he doesn’t choke his comeback.

The AI and pitcher usage (and other game suggestions).

Alabama Slammers Franchise Report - Year 17: Young, Wild & Free

Welcome back to year seventeen of the Alabama Slammers Franchise Report! Here are the links to the previous versions if you want to catch up (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031,2032, 2033, 2034, 2035, 2036).
Previous Season Highlights:
Andy Schaffer wins Cy Young
20-year-old Marco Vazquez leads the league in batting average, hits, doubles, and triples
Edgar Sanchez wins seventh straight gold glove
6 players make all-star team
106-win regular season
Lost in NLCS 4-2
Start of Offseason:
As with the previous versions, I’ll list the moves I made, the rationale behind those moves, the season results, and the future outlook.
Here are the salaries heading into the offseason.
\Unless stated otherwise, all players were re-signed to their one-year arbitration estimate*
Departures (non-trades):
Ernesto Bernal
Bernal was discovered by my scout in 2022 and spent fifteen years with the organization. He’s the franchise’s all-time leader in games, at-bats, WAR, runs, hits, total bases, singles, doubles, triples, RBIs, and stolen bases. He’s the greatest player in franchise history and it really hurt to part ways with him, but all good things must come to an end.
He signed a 5/$84m deal with the Rangers, which seems reasonable, and had a solid year. I received a supplemental first-round pick upon his signing.
Drew Romo
Romo looked to be on his way out, so I let him walk as a free agent. He didn’t sign with a team and retired at the end of the season. He played his entire 12-year major league career with the Slammers and was a huge reason we had six Cy Young award winners during his tenure.
Eric Lawrence
Lawrence struggled last year in the majors, so I gave him a season in AAA to work things out. He looks ready for the big leagues again and will be an opening day starter or get traded.
Jeff Hopper
Hopper was excellent during his six years with us, highlighted by his 2035 campaign when he finished third in the MVP voting. He wanted 8/$232m to re-sign, which was too expensive for my tastes, and ended up getting 6/$156m from the Jazz, which is still too expensive for me. I don’t see this contract ending well.
Move #1:
Hired a new trainer.
I heavily prioritize prevention and this guy is good at preventing all types of injuries. Here’s my old trainer.
Move #2:
Slammers Receive: Edwin de la Torre
Diamondbacks Receive: Alex Rivera, Luis Arguello, Mike Dooner, Harold Coppola, Bryn Hill
De la Torre is my third baseman fantasy. He has elite batting potential, above average fielding ability, excellent baserunning, great character, durable injury proneness, and bats from the left side of the plate. I gave the Diamondbacks an assortment of young and talented players, but I would’ve gladly given them twice as much. Guys like de la Torre just don’t exist.
Move #3:
Slammers Receive: Jonathan Hubbard
Padres Receive: Eric Clark
Hubbard might not be anything special to the Padres, but he’s beautiful to me. He’s a right-handed hitter, has elite defensive ratings, doesn’t expect to start, is durable, and has the sparkplug personality trait. I needed a very specific player and Hubbard met all of my criteria. He’ll start against lefties and play a decent amount against righties in an attempt to keep Steve Flores healthy for the playoffs.
Move #4:
Signed Andy Schaffer to a 5/$105m extension.
Schaffer is 26 and just won a Cy Young, this seems like a pretty safe deal.
Move #5:
Signed free agent Tommy Noonan to a 3/$30m deal.
After looking through the available in-house, trade, and free agent replacement options, I decided the best course of action was to roll the dice on Noonan. I’ve seen players bounce back from the Guru before, so hopefully Noonan does just that. If he falls off a cliff, I’ll only owe him $15m after this year.
Move #6:
Added a Dominican Rookie League team.
We haven’t gotten much out of our scouting discoveries, and I think it might be partially due to them spending so much time in the international complex, so we’re adding a Dominican Rookie League team for them to develop in – The Kiev Blue Claws. Don’t ask me why the team is in Ukraine, it’s just what the owner wanted.
I promoted every player from the international complex, and I’ll continue to promote new players as they’re discovered. I’m interested to see how this works out.
Move #7:
Slammers Receive: Chris Joiner
Mets Receive: Joe Poffenberger
Poffenberger was given strong consideration for the starting catcher job this year, but I decided to go with Gutierrez instead. There was no need to keep Poffenberger around in the minors, so I swapped him for a guy that can provide some depth in a year or two.
In-House Moves (Preseason):
Sean Vahey remains on the major league roster after joining during roster expansion last season. He will be a member of the bullpen.
Jose Gutierrez promoted from AA. Will be the primary starter at catcher vs. RHPs.
Bobby McCallum promoted from AA. Will start at first base.
Seung-hwa Kim promoted from AA. Will start in left field.
Bob Banks will slide to DH with the promotion of Kim.
Final Financial Situation:
We have about $34m in available budget room to start the year, so shouldn’t need to make any trades for cash, and we might even complete the owner goal of ending the year with a balance of +$23m. He’s been hounding me about that one for a while.
Here are the salaries heading into the season.
Move #8 (Part 1, Part 2):
Slammers Receive: $14m
Slammers Lose: Chris Dearborn, Nate Holston
Turns out we needed some more cash. Holston is a career minor leaguer, but Dearborn might have a real MLB future. I’ve seen too many players with his profile flame out though, so I’m willing to take the risk he doesn’t amount to anything.
Season Outlook:
This is the most excited I’ve been about a season in a while. It’s always fun to cruise to 100-win seasons with established teams, but we’re going with the youth movement this year. Our five through eight hitters have a combined zero days of major league service, so I’m really trusting my scout that these rookies are ready to perform. The pitching should remain elite, so if the young guys come through, we should roll to another division title.
Batters:
Primary Lineup vs. RHP and vs. LHP when Healthy (\DH enabled in both leagues, lineup vs. RHP shown below)*
RF – Marco Vazquez
Vazquez cooled off a bit at the plate as compared to last season but upped his defense to boost his overall value. He made his second all-star team and won his first gold glove.
CF – Wil Mireles
Mireles had another excellent season but will be leaving as a free agent. He wants 8/$256m to re-sign, which is too much for me.
2B – Edgar Sanchez
Sanchez continued his march towards the hall of fame with another great year. He made his third all-star team and won his eighth gold glove.
DH – Bob Banks
Banks moved to DH this year, which should be the least taxing position, but missed about a month to injury. When healthy, he performed below his usual standard. Hopefully, he gets back on track next year.
LF – Seung-Hwa Kim
Kim had a solid rookie year and will be back for a sophomore campaign. He’s 26-years-old but still looks to have a lot of untapped potential.
3B – Edwin de la Torre
De la Torre had a monster rookie season, winning rookie of the month in September and taking rookie of the year honors. He’s 21-years-old, so should be around for a long time.
1B – Bobby McCallum
McCallum started off the year on a crazy hot streak. He won rookie of the month in April and June and was on pace for 65 home runs and 167 RBIs. He cooled off tremendously as the season progressed but was still good enough to finish third in the rookie of the year voting.
C – Jose Gutierrez
I feel pretty good about my decision to go with Gutierrez at catcher. He played great defense and was league average at the plate, which is all I could ever ask for. As an added bonus, his personality trait was revealed as sparkplug.
SS – Steve Flores
Flores came back from a year-long injury and played great. I would love to keep his defense around forever but it’s probably better to go ahead and move him before he gets injured again. I have a solid replacement in Eric Lawrence.
Bench
C – Danny Wells
Wells has been pretty much the same player since he debuted in 2032 but I’m ok with that. As long as he continues to play excellent defense, he’ll stick around.
IF – Justus Evans
Evans had a pretty good five-year run for a guy that used to be a pitcher. I have plenty of in-house replacements though, so he’ll leave as a free agent.
IF – Jonathan Hubbard
I brought in Hubbard to replace the fragile backup, so of course he got injured. He missed a month with a separated shoulder but did what was asked of him when healthy.
OF – Andy Vera
Vera is overqualified to be a bench player, but I have an excess of outfield talent and he’s the worst of the bunch. He might get a shot to start in center field next year with Mireles departing.
Replacements
IF – Chris McClain
It’s a good thing I kept the fragile backup middle infielder around. He filled in for Hubbard for a month and didn’t kill us.
OF – Mike Honeycutt
Honeycutt filled in for Banks and was pretty good in his limited opportunities. Depending on the rest of the roster, he might get a backup role next year.
Pitchers:
Pitching Staff when Healthy
SP – Corey MacDonald
I took the pitch count off MacDonald since his injury proneness was upgraded to iron man and he continued to stay healthy. He played well and made his seventh all-star game.
SP – Gilles Palacios
Palacios had one of his best seasons yet, winning the pitching triple crown and collecting his fourth Cy Young award. He wants 7/$245m to re-sign, but I’m going to try to find a way to bring him back. More than likely, I’ll have to sign him in free agency.
SP – Andy Schaffer
Schaffer decided to take it easy after winning a Cy Young last year and getting a contract extension. Hopefully, he goes back to his Cy Young ways next season.
SP – Eddie Copping
I had strongly considered a long-term extension for Copping in the offseason but I’m glad I held off. He struggled this year, posting his worst season yet. I think he’ll be fine going forward, but I’m much less worried about his performance without a long-term deal.
SP – Bobby Butler
Butler might not be done as a major league starting pitcher, but he’s done with the Slammers. He suffered a partially torn UCL in spring training, then suffered an eight-month setback in August. Hopefully, he still has some trade value when he returns.
RP – Alan McCarter
McCarter has been getting worse the last two seasons, but I’ve kept him around for his prankster personality trait. I’ll try to find someone in the offseason that’s also good at baseball.
RP – Tommy Noonan
Noonan isn’t the world beater he used to be but he’s still a really good reliever. I’m glad I brought him back.
RP – Jose Macias
Macias was solid for the second straight season and will be back next year.
RP – Sean Vahey
Vahey had a tough start to the season but established himself as one of the best relievers in the game by the end of the year. He’ll probably be around for his remaining five years of team control.
RP – Jose Aguilar
Aguilar once again performed like one of the best relievers in baseball, making his fifth all-star game. He has two more team friendly years on his contract, so will definitely be back.
RP – Mike Bentley
I was browsing through player profiles about halfway through the season and did a double take when I got to Bentley. All of a sudden, he had an 80-grade changeup and wanted to be a starter, which definitely wasn’t the case last year. I kept him in the bullpen until rosters expanded, then let him work as the sixth starter the rest of the season. He did well in his five starts and will be a member of the rotation next year. Hopefully, I can still sign him to a cheap extension.
Oh yeah, he also won reliever of the year.
RP – Steve Hixson
Hixson wasn’t as good as last year but he’s cheap and durable, so I’ll probably bring him back.
RP – Jonathan Kelsey
It’s always nice to have an iron man reliever that’s capable of competently starting 31 games. He moved to the rotation when Butler was injured and gave us 190.1 solid innings. Unfortunately, he’s an upcoming free agent, so probably won’t return.
Replacements
RP – Chris Larkin
Larkin was called up and given Kelsey’s bullpen role when Butler was injured. He wants to be a starter, but I don’t feel comfortable with his movement, so he’ll remain in the bullpen or get traded next season.
RP – Joe Cope
A 32nd round pick in 2032, it took Cope a while to figure things out in the minors, but once he did, he rose quickly through the system. He was called up when rosters expanded and struggled in limited appearances, but I think he’ll be one of the best relievers in the game in a year or two.
RP – Mike Blake
Blake was also called up when rosters expanded, and he pitched well in his three appearances. He looks like he could be a solid starting pitcher, but I have better options ahead of him, so he’ll have to take a bullpen role in the majors.
Season Results:
We didn’t do our usual raping and pillaging during the regular season but still won 104 games and took our eighth straight division crown. The Cardinals actually took the lead from us at game 130, but we took it back thirteen games later and pulled away late. The pitching continued to be dominant and the offense was amongst the league best. Other than Butler, we’re fully healthy going into the playoffs and will go with a playoff rotation of Palacios, MacDonald, Schaffer, and Bentley. Copping and Kelsey will move to the bullpen.
Our first-round opponent is the 94-68 Rockies. Their 3-5 hitters (Eric Zuniga, Noe Renteria, Robby Teeter) are terrifying, but they don’t have much pitching. We should be able to take this one.
Divisional Series Game 1, Rockies Win 5-3 – We played well overall but couldn’t overcome Renteria’s four RBI performance. Three players had solo home runs in the loss.
Divisional Series Game 2, Slammers Win 5-4 – MacDonald gave up four runs but the bullpen provided 3.2 scoreless innings to hold on for the win. We had fourteen hits in the contest and Sanchez led the way with two RBIs.
Divisional Series Game 3, Slammers Win 6-4 – New starter Mike Bentley had a great outing, striking out eight while giving up two runs over six innings. Banks led the way on offense with three RBIs.
Divisional Series Game 4, Slammers Win 8-1 – Schaffer pitched a gem, going seven scoreless innings and striking out nine. Everyone chipped in on offense en route to fourteen hits and eight runs.
Divisional Series Game 5, Slammers Win 12-8 – We knocked out their starter in the first and continued to pile on in the 12-8 victory. Kim led the way with two homers and three RBIs, winning series MVP.
Next up is the 101-61 Cardinals, led by young ace Eddie Salinas. They have a deep and balanced roster, so I could see this going either way. The winner should take the World Series.
NLCS Game 1, Slammers Win 6-4 – The rookie McCallum put the team on his back with a three-home run, five RBI performance. MacDonald gave up four runs in his second straight appearance, but Aguilar and Noonan closed out the game with 3.1 scoreless innings.
NLCS Game 2, Slammers Win 10-3 – It was Banks putting on his superman cape this time, with a four RBI performance. Bentley gave up two runs over 5.1 innings.
NLCS Game 3, Slammers Win 3-2 (12) – This one was close throughout, but a bases load walk by Kim in the top of the twelfth provided the game deciding run. Schaffer, Aguilar, Noonan, and Macias combined to allow two runs over twelve innings.
NLCS Game 4, Slammers Win 2-1 – Palacios came out on top in a pitcher’s duel and we swept the series. McCallum was named MVP, mostly off of his game one performance.
We’re once again facing off against the Red Sox in the World Series, and this should just be a victory lap. They have a very good rotation (Jorge Morones, Bobby Dibble, Rob McDowell, Josh Sheppard) but no one worth mentioning on offense. It’ll be a major upset if we lose this one.
World Series Game 1, Slammers Win 8-2 – We started off the series with a bang, getting home runs from McCallum, Banks, and de la Torre. MacDonald gave up two runs over 6.2 innings and Aguilar closed out the rest.
World Series Game 2, Slammers Win 7-4 – The Rookie Kim led the way with a pair of two-run homers. Then Bentley struck out eleven and gave up two runs over six innings.
World Series Game 3, Red Sox Win 3-1 – Red Sox ace Morones shut us down in the loss, but we can win the series without seeing him again if we win two of the next three.
World Series Game 4, Red Sox Win 9-7 – We were on track to win this one before a complete meltdown by Macias and Noonan in the eighth. They gave up a combined five runs in the inning and the offense couldn’t bail them out in the ninth.
World Series Game 5, Slammers Win 6-2 – We really needed this win. MacDonald and Vahey combined to hold them to two runs over nine innings and Banks led the way on offense with three RBIs. We’ll head back home and look to close out the series.
World Series Game 6, Slammers Win 14-5 – This one was close until a nine run explosion in the fourth inning put the game away. Every starter other than Kim had at least one RBI. The Red Sox first baseman won series MVP in the loss, but we’d much rather have the title than an individual award.
We’re really starting to roll now, as that’s our third title in six seasons! The young guys came through when it mattered and will hopefully lead us to many more titles in the future.
Here are the rest of the playoff results and MLB standings.
Top Prospects:
The top prospects list continues to be in flux, as we promoted three players and traded another three from last year’s edition, but we still have a lot of good players.
1.) Hector Ruiz
Ruiz was an honorable mention the last two years because I don’t trust international amateur free agent signings, but I’m ready to buy the hype now. If he can stay healthy and reach his full potential, he’s a 10 WAR player. He’ll begin next season at AA.
2.) Victor Lacayo
I’m starting to get some serious mileage from these international amateur free agent signings, as that’s how the top two players on the list were acquired. Lacayo has monster hitting potential for a middle infielder and could be elite defensively if he gets a slight bump to his range. Worst case, he’ll a great bench player. He’ll begin next year in A.
3.) Jake Maddox
Maddox continued his steady climb through the system and looks just about ready for the majors. Depending on what his ratings look like at the start of next year, he might make the opening day roster.
4.) Chris Joiner
I had a trio of guys last year that I thought were in line to take Justus Evans spot, but the acquisition of Joiner probably ended their major league chances. He plays above average defense at three positions, has the potential to be an elite hitter, and has excellent baserunning skills. He’ll begin next season on the opening day roster.
5.) Felix Lopez
Lopez could probably fill the role Joiner will take next year, but he’s still young, so I’ll give him a year in AAA to round out his skills. I like everything about him but his range, so hopefully that improves next year.
6.) Chris Overcash
Overcash looks ready for the majors but I don’t have a place for him, so he’ll start next season in AAA. I’ll get him some experience in left field, and he’ll be first in line as an injury replacement.
7.) Gabe Depass
If Depass had durable injury proneness, he’d be top two on the list. He’s a great talent but you can never put too much faith in a pitcher with normal injury proneness. He’ll start next season at A.
8.) Brad Cole
Cole is a very interesting player. Other than his outfield error, he has everything you’d want in an outfield prospect, so I’m hoping that improves next year in A. I was able to scoop him up in the sixth round since he was listed as a pitcher coming out of the draft.
9.) Nate Bianco
Bianco’s movement still hasn’t improved, so I’m starting to cool on him a bit. He performed well in A- though and will begin next season in A+.
10.) Chris Brown
Rest in peace Chris Brown. If he makes it back from his torn UCL, he’ll be restricted to bullpen duty.
Honorable mentions:
Andy West, Bob Larson
I usually don’t include players like this on the list, but these two curiosities have very interesting ratings profiles and dominated the competition in A. They’ll both begin next season in AA and I’m hoping their ratings catch up to their production.
Eric Whittington, Israel Lopez
Both of these guys were listed as starters coming out of the draft, but I’ve put them in their proper roles as relievers. Between the two of them, I’m sure one will make the majors.
Sam Leintz
Leintz can’t stay healthy, so he’ll probably get traded. Too bad, since I used a first-round pick on him last year.
Promoted to MLB:
Bobby McCallum, Seung-Hwa Kim, Jose Gutierrez
Future Outlook:
We have some tough decisions this offseason with Palacios’s upcoming free agency and logjams in the infield and outfield. Eric Lawrence deserves to start, as do a number of minor league outfielders, but we also have a lot young entrenched starters in the majors. I’m not sure yet how I’ll build the roster, but these are good problems to have. It’s not a question of how we win, but how do we win the most. Hopefully, we can push towards 120 wins next year.
Here is the budget and salaries heading into the offseason.

Better Know the Ballot #4: Dan Haren

Hey Baseball buddies! Hope everyone had a relaxing Thanksgiving weekend...and following week. I'm back now, and it's time to get balls deep on the rest of this list.
This year’s Hall of Fame ballot includes 11 first time players. None of them are first ballot locks and some of them are guaranteed to fall off the ballot after one year of eligibility. So once again, we’re taking a look at all the ballot rookies, starting from the bottom. We've previously covered Nick Swisher, Michael Cuddyer and AJ Burnett, so it’s time for…
Dan Haren
Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor: 30
Career bWAR (13 years): 35.1
Stats: 153-131, 3.75 ERA, 2013 K, 2419.2 IP, 1.181 WHIP, 109 ERA+
Awards: All-Star x3 (AL 2007, NL 2008, ‘09)
League Leading Stats: Starts x3 (34, 2006; 34, 2007; 34, 2011), WHIP (1.003, 2009), K/BB x3 (5.15, 2008; 5.87, 2009; 5.82, 2011)
Teams Played For: Cardinals (2003-04), A’s (2005-07), D-backs (2008-2010), Angels (2010-2012), Nationals (2013), Dodgers (2014), Marlins (2015), Cubs (2015)
Throughout the ‘90s, David Cone picked up a reputation as kind of a gun for hire. Twice the Blue Jays brought him in mid-season for playoff pushes. The Yankees signed him longer term to solidify a rotation that won four rings, and Boston brought him in at the end of his career to try and stoke their own championship fires. He was a six-time all-star, a Cy Young winner and a fringe HoF candidate who was always happy with the “hired merc” persona.
Dan Haren was kind of like that, only more mediocre.
Daniel Boone* Haren first gained the attention of scouts while he was pitching at Pepperdine, along with teammate Noah Lowery. In their junior years, Haren put up a 2.22 ERA and was named WCC Player of the year, while Lowery posted a 1.71 ERA en route to being named WCC Pitcher of the year. Both players skipped their senior season and declared for the MLB draft; a draft in which the Giants would take Lowery in the first round, with the Cardinals drafting Haren in the second.
Lowery seemed to be on his way to a good-to-above-average career in SF until the Giants medical staff decided that he needed to be sacrificed upon the alter of Dave Dravecky and completely mis-managed a circulatory issue into a career ending forearm injury that cost Lowery a rib in the process. Meanwhile, Haren was completely fine, he was just in St Louis. He appeared in 28 games over two seasons, making 19 starts and throwing 4.2 shutout innings in the 2004 World Series, but the Cards wound up sending Haren to Oakland, along with Kiko Calero and future Mexican Baseball League gold glover Daric Barton, in a trade that netted them Mark Mulder.
In response Haren, clearly happy about being relieved of the burden of pretending that St Louis has the best fans in baseball, entered the prime portion of his career.
From 2005 to 2010, Haren’s age 24 to 29 seasons, ol’ Dirty Dan was a legit dealer. 85-64, 3.55 in 1343 innings, with 1176 K, to the tune of a 3.61 FIP, 1.173 WHIP and 123 ERA+. Over that span, he would make all three of his all-star appearances and be good for 27.1 bWAR, including back to back 6+ bWAR seasons in 2008 and 2009.
In the middle of that stretch, the A’s traded Haren to Arizona in exchange for a massive haul of prospects that included Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland and Chris Carter. Three of those guys would go on to have notable big league careers, but only one would make any noise in an A’s uniform because Billy Beane was always playing a game of keep away with himself.
The back half of Haren’s career, 2011-2015 was less successful. Haren kept on doing exactly the same things he’d always done, just with ever diminishing returns. Two full seasons in LAA, including his last really good effort in 2011. A season in DC. Back to LA proper for a season in Dodger blue. Then 21 games for Miami in 2015 before the Cubs traded for him to try and get them over the hump a year before they were really ready for prime time. (This was three years after a deal to trade Haren straight up for Carlos Marmol fell through. A deal which, while not being on quite the same level as Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio, would have been hilariously lopsided, nonetheless. Haren was still good for 500 innings of league average ball over his last three seasons; Marmol once finished third in the league in hit batters, despite only throwing 74 innings. A stat we celebrated by making him our closer. And sure, he gave us one pretty solid season, but then he started blowing saves like he was a drunken college student in Seattle during Fleet Week and you know what? I’m getting off track.)
Unlike Cone, Haren was never a guy who embraced the “missing piece” role. When the Angles let him walk after the 2012 season, Haren told the LA Times “I’m sick of changing teams.” And, since baseball is a petty bitch with a weird sense of humor, Haren would naturally be forced to change uniforms four times over the next three seasons.
A large part of the reason for Haren’s decline can be attributed to his change in velocity. Haren was never exactly a fireballer, but in the early portion of his career his fastball could routinely end up in the lower-end-of-the-lower-end of the 90’s and he could dial it up into the 93-94 range when he needed. By the time the Angels declined his option in 2012, however, his fastball was down to the high 80’s (a fact he’s kind of leaned into and embraced: his Twitter handle is @ithrow88). His last season in the bigs, Haren’s 86 MPH average was the second slowest non-knuckleballer in the majors.
Haren was able to remain effective because he’d always had impeccable control. At no point in his career did he ever walk more than 55 batters in a season and there were just three full seasons in his career when his BB/9 ratio got above 2. But he wasn’t ever known as a Maddux-type pitcher who lived life on the black. Instead, Haren liked to use his ability to throw any pitch at any time as a means of coming right at guys and challenging them where they live. When it worked, it worked: Haren struck out over 200 batters three times and was the active leader in K/9 ratio when he retired. But all that reward came with an ever increasing amount of risk as well: Haren coughed up 305 homers in his career, 54th all time. Back in 2016, Haren directly addressed his lack of both velocity and fear in an amazing, now sadly deleted, tweet: “Sometimes when the count was 3-1, I would just throw it down the middle and hope for the best. People pop up in batting practice, right?” (The quarantine has slowed him down a bit, but Haren has historically been a highly entertaining Twitter follow)
Dan Haren spent 13 seasons in the major leagues, dividing nine of those years more or less evenly betwixt the A’s, Dbacks and Angels. He made the most starts in Oakland and professed to be happiest in Anaheim, but he goes into the Hypothetical Hall with the Diamondbacks, as a nod to his two all-star appearances with the team and the two best overall seasons of his career. He’s also fifth all time in franchise history for bWAR for pitchers (13.1), sixth in ERA (3.56) and fourth in WHIP (1.132).
Chances of making the Hall: Worse than his chances of making an MLB comeback, better than his chances of winning the fastest pitch competition at your local ballpark.
Chances of leaving the ballot this year: 100%
*not his actual middle name, but fuck. It should be, right?

Better Know the Ones Left Off the Ballot #18: Cody Ross

We're only a week-and-a-half from the revelation of who gets into the Hall! So I gotta speed this up! Which I've said every single time it hasn't been crunch time but it hasn't happened quite as much as I'd like! We'll see how I do this time! Done with the exclamation points now. If you don't know what this is, the Hall of Fame ballot has a lot of people who qualify for it (10 years of MLB experience), but aren't on it because they were deemed not noteworthy enough. We look at the guys that weren't up to the Selection Committee's standards. You can find the ones that make that number up there so big at the bottom. Now to this dude named Cody.

Cody Ross

Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor: 1
Career bWAR (12 years): 13.5
Stats: .262/.322/.445, 104 OPS+, 904 H, 132 HR,356 XBH, 508 RBI, 449 R
League Leading Stats: Double Plays as OF (4, 2007)
Awards: 2010 NLCS MVP, World Series Ring (2010)
Teams Played For: Tigers (2003), Dodgers (2005-06), Reds (2006), Marlins (2006-2010), Giants (2010-11), Red Sox (2012), Diamondbacks (2013-14), Athletics (2015)
Cody Ross could be one of the more irritating players to have on your team. One week he'd play like a superstar, the next week he wouldn't get a hit and drop a flyball. What he lacked in consistency, he made up for in longevity, managing to qualify for the Hall of Fame ballot. Didn't make it though, which is why he's here. How could someone who played so well (be it sparsely) and who took the nickname "Smiles" for his oh-so-charming grin get left off by the Selection Committee? Did they make a mistake?
What with being a high school All-American and pitching a five-inning perfect game one time, Cody Ross from Carlsbad wasn't a surprising pick for the Tigers in the 4th round of the 1999 draft. Even after going 31-for-142 in Rookie League for a .218 average, 15 of those 31 hits were for extra bases, so to the next level he went. Turns out he got better the higher level of competition he faced, going from a .706 OPS in Rookie ball in 1999 to a .753 OPS in single-A in 2000 to a .798 OPS in high-A in 2001 to a .859 OPS in double-A in 2002. No more perfect games thrown, though, because this was the early 2000s, and two-way players were the type of fantastical beast a grandparent might lull a child to sleep with stories about. After keeping the trend up in AAA in 2003, Ross got a call from the Detroit on July 4th. They wanted him to celebrate America's birthday with them in Kansas City. The Tigers had also won only 20 of the 84 games they'd played that season so things weren't going so great. Maybe Ross could help bring some much needed relief. Or he could ground out, reach on an error but not come around to score, then get hit by a pitch after which manager Alan Trammell subbed in a pinch-runner. And then he got to watch his team lose. Certainly a non-ideal way to start your career, but you just gotta keep at it and- oh you're back in the minors a week later. Hey, it's fine. Keep it up, and you'll get back in no time. That he did, coming up as soon as the rosters expanded, and once he was back, he proved he wanted to stay. In in his 20th ever plate appearance, in his 6th ever game, for his 4th ever hit, Cody Ross hit a grand slam off Cliff Lee. Sammy Sosa went almost 10 years before hitting his first slam, but it took Cody Ross just six games. Apparently the baseball gods didn't want him getting a big head after that, because just two plate appearances later in the same game, Ross tore his ACL trying to reach first on a sacrifice bunt turned E1. Bye bye majority of 2004. He still made it into 60 games with the AAA Las Vegas 51s, but was finished after that. "But wait a second," I hear you say, "surely you mean the Toledo Mud Hens, because they were Detroit's triple-A affiliate during that time, while the 51s were associated with the Dodgers." Remarkably observant, but that brings me to my next point. At the beginning of 2004, the Tigers decided that having bottom-5 pitching in the MLB was not how they wanted to continue (ignore the part where their offense was just as bad if not worse). As a result, Ross was shipped off to LA for relief arm Steve Colyer, and played for the 51s, hitting .273/.328/.538 with 14 homers. Not bad, not bad at all. Would it be enough to propel him into the majors next year?
After spending the first three months of the 2005 season in Nevada, Cody Ross got the call he'd been waiting for. Then, in 14 games between June 26th and July 10th, he... went 4-for-25 with one double and but a single RBI. Back to the minors it was. He'd finish his time in Vegas batting .267/.348/.509, but hadn't yet proved he wasn't like all the other AAAA hitters. He would get chance in spring training, and he took it, making the Opening Day roster, and even appeared in the first game of the season versus the Atlanta Braves, pinch-hitting for Derek Lowe. Flew out and stranded two but he was playing. His fifth game and second start of the season went a whole lot better. Facing the Pirates, in his 59th career plate appearance, Ross hit his second career grand slam. Barry Larkin needed 8991 plate appearances to get two grand slams, and Ross did it in less than 1/150th of the time. Seeing as how hitting home runs was fun, he decided to do it again the next inning, but fell a baserunner short of a slam this time. The Dodgers were so thankful for his contributions that they traded him just a week-and-a-half after that performance. Then again, their outfield already had Kenny Lofton, J.D. Drew, and these up-and-comers named Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, so that makes sense. And so Ross made his way across the country once again, this time to Cincinnati. The Reds watched him break his finger in his debut game, then assigned him to the AAA to rehab the injury. Called him back up once that was done, only to trade him to the Florida Marlins right after. Those Fish were in the middle of an... interesting season. Three days before they bought this guy with two grand slams in 30 career games, they had a record of 11-31. That was because owner Jeffrey Loria blasted all his best players off into oblivion for nickels and dimes on the dollar because he was mad at the city of Miami for not building him his own stadium, but that's another story. Ross would serve as their 4th outfield option for the rest of that season, making it into 91 games, more than quadrupling his career total up to that point. Sure, he'd bat .212/.284/.396 over that time, but don't ignore the 11 homers and 37 RBIs, including a 3-home-run, 7-RBI onslaught versus the 97-win Mets. Ignoring the part where he did that on 9/11 against a team from New York, it was the best offensive performance of the year. In case you misread that, a dude who didn't have a regular starting spot and was batting .228 at the time had the best offensive performance of the year in the MLB. That performance actually put the Marlins at a 73-71 record, only 2 games back of the NL Wild Card, and made them the first MLB team to claw back above .500 after being 20 games under in the same year. Even after they fell to 78-84 at the end of the season, the Marlins seemed like they were sticking with him. Mainly because he was cheap, but a performance like that didn't hurt. It seemed, after a long and winding road, that Cody Ross had finally found a team that wanted him.
The Marlins kept Cody Ross around for another three years, and unintentionally introduced the world to Dr. Cody and Mr. Ross. His 2006 season could be considered the genesis of the poorly-hitting and betrayal-minded Mr. Ross, but his 2007 season in Florida bore witness to the birth of his better half, Dr. Cody. Once his 12th game of the season was over, his average would never fall below .275 again, and at the year's conclusion, the Doctor would finish at a magnificent .335/.411/.653. The big dents in his MVP campaign were the fact he only played 66 games after missing just over 2 months of the season with a hamstring issue, and the fact the Marlins finished 71-91. The beginning of the next season saw another appearance from Mr. Ross, which resulted in a batting average of .209 in mid-June, despite the other side's best efforts including 10 home runs in May. Dr. Cody would overpower his nemesis for the next month, over which he batted .367 with 5 homers and 21 RBIs in 25 games. The two personalities would continue flip-flopping for a month each until the Toy Cannon (now that's a nickname) finished the year hitting .260/.316/.488 with 22 homers. Not bad for his first year as a regular member of the lineup. Man showed he deserved it too, putting up some real nice fielding numbers in the outfield, including a perfect fielding percentage in 101 games in center. The team was better this year too, going 84-77, though still not good enough for the playoffs. Over his next 271 games, Dr. Cody would bat .323/.375/.512 over 555 at-bats, and Mr. Ross would bat .201/.257/.352 over 458 at-bats. Add it all up, and during his time in a Marlins jersey, Dr. Cody and Mr. Ross combined to give Cody Ross a line of .265/.322/.465 with 80 home runs and a 104 OPS+. Thankfully for the team, the only half on-hand when it came to fielding was Dr. Cody, who contributed 2.4 dWAR with significant time spent in each outfield position. Never made the playoffs, unfortunately, since 87-75 didn't cut it in 2009. And yet, as with all good things, bad things, and in-between things, his time in Florida had to come to an end. Having been, for all intents and purposes, an above-average player for the past several years, Ross had been rewarded with several pay raises, from league minimum his first year all the way up to an expected salary of over $6 million at the end of 2010. The Marlins, who were rather stingy when it came to such extravagant contracts, put their 29-year-old outfielder, who already had 1.6 bWAR to his name that season, on waivers. It made more sense than that might imply, as Florida was out of contention by this point, and they had several younger outfielders to whom they wanted to give playing time. Names like Logan Morrison, Cameron Maybin, and Mike "I won't be Giancarlo for another couple years" Stanton were waiting in the wings, and while Cody Ross was good, he'd been more Mr. Ross than Dr. Cody as of late, and wasn't going to factor into the team's future plans. Thus, on August 22nd of 2010, The San Francisco Giants claimed a perfectly viable outfielder off waivers. Who would show up for them?
The San Francisco team that Ross joined was one that was on the fringes of playoff contention at 69-56, but had gone 9-11 over the past 20 games and were in desperate need of a spark. With an outfield core of Pat Burrell (eh), Aaron Rowand (could be better), Nate Schierholtz (uh oh), and Andres Torres (literally who?), someone like Cody Ross seemed like a premium pickup at a time like this. Particularly if, since he'd recently spent several weeks in a slump, Dr. Cody could show up for the end of the season. Unfortunately, the Giants got Mr. Ross, who went .195 over the next 20 he played. Even after the Doctor showed up to go 13-for-32 with 3 homers in the final 13 games of the season, that still only raised the team's average to .235 on the month, which was rather disappointing from a team that had maintained a monthly average above .260 four out of the five other times. Turns out, that was still good enough, because the Giants pitching went off in September. That month, the starting rotation allowed just a 2.36 ERA, spearheaded by Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, and Jonathan Sanchez, who went a combined 12-4 with ERAs of 1.94, 1.13, and 1.01, respectively. The bullpen, somehow, was even better, allowing a minuscule total of 9 runs, one of which was unearned, in 80 innings for a microscopic ERA of 0.90. Brian Wilson was a perfect 11-for-11 in save opportunities, and Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla combined for 12 holds across 24.1 innings, and together only allowed one run. Because of that unreal display, The Giants went 19-10 in September, just good enough to capture the NL West with a record of 92-70. They, and their new starting outfielder Cody Ross, were off to the NLDS.
SF would face the Atlanta Braves, who had ridden the bats of Chipper Jones, unlikely All-Star Omar Infante, and rookie Jason Heyward, and the arms of Tim Hudson, Jonny Venters, and Billy Wagner to a 91-71 record and the NL East crown. Chipper was out of commission for the Division Series, and they missed him dearly, especially in Game 1. Tim Lincecum pitched one of the best playoff games of the 21st century, going the full nine, only allowing 2 hits and 1 walk, and striking out fourteen. The final score was 1-0, with Dr. Cody's bat driving in Buster Posey for the only run. All four games of the series would be decided by one run, and the Toy Cannon fired off three RBIs, one in each game the Giants won. Talk about clutch hitting and surgical precision. On to the NLCS, where the Doctor would have to face another Doc, Roy Halladay. The only reason Lincecum's impeccable Game 1 wasn't the consensus best playoff pitching performance of this millennium is because it might not have been the best pitching performance of that week. The day before, Roy Halladay of the Philadelphia Phillies threw the second playoff no-hitter in history against the Cincinnati Reds, facing only one more than the minimum after a borderline full count call didn't go his way. It was his second no-hitter of the year, having pitched a perfect game in May against the Florida Marlins. Hey, wait, who was batting 6th in that game? Why it was none other than Mr. Ross, who kicked off a stint as his worse half with that loss. This time, however, Halladay would have to contend with Dr. Cody. And this was a Dr. Cody who was hot off an NLDS where he certainly would have won the MVP if they gave those out. In the first game of the NLCS, after Halladay had faced the minimum through seven batters, Cody Ross stepped up to the plate, and took him deep for a solo home run. Then, two innings later, he did it again, for another solo shot. Those two runs would be critical in a game that eventually ended 4-3 in favor of the Giants. They also set the tone for how Dr. Cody would be slice and dice his way through the Championship Series. He'd go 5-for-18 for the rest of it, hitting 3 doubles and another home run along the way. He drove in 5 (three of whom were himself) and scored another to be responsible for 6 of the 19 runs from San Francisco in a close series. For his contributions, Ross was awarded the 2010 NLCS MVP, because that's what you get after notching a slugging percentage of .950 in a 6-game series. He cooled a bit for the World Series, going 4-for-17 with a double and a home run in a 5-game dispatch of the Texas Rangers to win his very own World Series ring. The Giants, clearly thankful to him for the concoctions he'd prescribed his opponents, gifted Ross a $6.3 million contract for one year. He was yet again a member of an outfield platoon, playing the majority of his games in left, and remaining as inconsistent as ever. When he was on, he hit .311/.444/.600. When he wasn't, he hit .204/.344/.307. Unfortunately for the Giants, Dr. Cody yielded a lot of time to Mr. Ross in 2011, leading to a rather disappointing finish of .240/.325/.405, his lowest batting average and slugging percentage in five years. San Francisco likewise reverted, going only 86-76, which wasn't even good enough for a wild card spot. Mr. Ross even did the unthinkable and showed up in the field, putting up a rather dismal -1.4 dWAR en route to a trip to free agency. Having just had the worst season of the past several years at the age of 30, one might expect Ross to quietly ride off into the sunset with his World Series ring and call it an a-okay career. However, Dr. Cody and Mr. Ross still had business to attend to.
In January of 2012, the Red Sox signed Cody Ross to a one-year, $3.5 million contract. His role was clear: outfield depth. You don't get signed to a team with 2011-MVP-runner-up Jacoby Ellsbury and superstar Carl Crawford on it and expect to be starting the most games on the team in the outfield. Then Cody Ross started the most games in the outfield for the 2012 Boston Red Sox. Injuries galore gutted that team, with Crawford and Ellsbury combining for just 105 games. Ross played more than that by himself, even after he missed a month with a broken foot. What's more is it seemed like Dr. Cody stuck around for the majority of the season, bouncing back to .267/.326/.481 with 22 homers and 81 RBIs. Good enough for a 115 OPS+, Ross' best score over a full season in his career. Pity it didn't translate to the rest of the Red Sox. With key contributors missing so much time (Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz even got in on the action), a starting pitcher crop that treated a 4.50 ERA as the floor, and heavy inconsistency in the bullpen, Boston followed up their missed-it-by-that-much 2011 season with a 69-93 showing. Ross, who wasn't a part of the future, was let go, and after he was named the 22nd best free agent available by MLB Trade Rumors, expected a big payday. That he got, with a 3-year, $26 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He'd be the highest paid outfielder on a roster with youngsters AJ Pollock, Gerardo Parra, and Adam Eaton on it. He'd ultimately disappoint given the contract, playing all of 177 games across two seasons, and hitting .268/.322/.378. Perhaps most startling was the fact he hit only 10 home runs for the Dbacks, a number he had cleared in every single season prior where he'd played more than 20 games. After they didn't like what they saw, Arizona pushed the cancel button in April of 2015, buying out the rest of his contract to release him. A league minimum offer from the Oakland A's was accepted, but after 9 games of going 2-for-22, he wound up released less than a month later. That would be the last we heard from Cody Ross, after he didn't get offered another contract for a year, and retired via a Twitter announcement. Glad this story had a better ending than that other story with a split personality. Wish I could remember what it was called.
Cody Ross was certainly an interesting player. He had such stark streaks so succinct and startling (try saying that five times fast). I don't think I've ever seen another player with so very defined lines as to whether they were on or off. All the other stuff was pretty neat too, from hitting two grand slams within his first twenty hits, to getting perfected by Halladay only to hit two dingers off him in the playoffs, to the stuff I didn't even cover. Like how he's probably a top five all-time batter who hits right-handed and throws left-handed, or that one time he hit three grand slams in 2009, or how he first wanted to ride bulls in the rodeo. He's quite an interesting specimen to grace the history of the MLB. Not Hall-of-Fame ballot-worthy, though. Playoff heroics and interesting aspects set aside, 904 career hits and nothing that could even be classified as "All-Star" levels of quality mean no ballot for you. Even then, certainly not a bad player to write about.
Ross visits the Hall in a Florida Marlins cap for his 502 hits, 80 home runs, and 297 RBIs with the team. He passes by someone who looks suspiciously similar in an Arizona Diamondbacks hat with what appears to be a devilish grin on his face.
Geez Louise there are 17 of these
#1: Randy Choate
#2: Kevin Gregg
#3: Dan Uggla
#4: Josh Hamilton
#5: Delmon Young
#6: Willie Bloomquist
#7: Grady Sizemore
#8: Kevin Correia
#9: David DeJesus
#10: Rafael Betancourt
#11: Clint Barmes
#12: Adam LaRoche
#13: Grant Balfour
#14: Randy Wolf
#15: Rafael Soriano
#16: Chris Denorfia
#17: Bruce Chen

How much (negative) WAR would a potato accrue playing centerfield for a Major League team for a full season?

This is part 2 of my "How much WAR would ________ get?" series. You can find How much (negative) WAR would I accrue playing on a Major League team for a full season? here.

So yeah. I wasn't satisfied with just knowing how much negative WAR I would get. I needed to know how much WAR an inanimate object, say, a potato, would cost a Major League team. And more importantly, am I closer in value to said potato than I am to an actual big leaguer?
Once more there are assumptions. This is a magic potato. It has everyone convinced it is actually a competent center fielder. So no rearranging the fielders to compensate for having an inanimate object on your roster. But as soon as the play starts, all involved simultaneously say "oh fuck" as they realize they have been fooled into believing this tuber can play baseball.
We will go through the components as we did last time, rearranging the order a bit.

Positional Adjustment

Tate will be manning center for a full season. 162 games of CF is worth 2.5 runs. Looking good so far!

Batting

We can discuss whether a potato (or a carrot, for that matter) even with a human-sized strike zone would pick up a couple of walks (I think so, actually), but for the purposes of this exercise, we will assume Tate will go .000/.000/.000. Which brings us to the matter of plate appearances. As everyone knows, magic potatoes will fool people into believing they are decent lead-off men. So Tate will lead off 162 games. According to Baseball Reference's batting splits page, in 2019 there were 22824 PAs from the #1 spot in the lineup. This averages to ~761 per team. However, never making it on base will seriously diminish Tater's plate appearances. In 2019, leadoff hitters had an overall OBP of .335. This comes to a total of 255 on-base events for the average leadoff hitter. So I think 1 out of every 9 of those missing on base events will cost an individual player a PA. So we can subtract 28 PA from the 761 an average leadoff hitter would have, leaving Tate with 733.
From here we convert to wOBA. It's .000. That was easy.
We then determine wRAA ((.000^{^wOBA} -.320^{^lg} ^{^wOBA} )/1.157^{^wOBA} ^{^Scale} )x733^{^PA} = -202.7 wRAA
Well there goes the positive RAR we started with. -200.2 RAR

Baserunning

Here's the thing. If you don't get on base, you don't get (or lose) baserunning WAR.
WAIT! That's not true! By never hitting into a double play, Tate can actually come out positive in this component. In 2019, there were 32598 double play situations:

	1--, 0 out	12-, 0 out	1-3, 0 out	123, 0 out	1--, 1 out	12-, 1 out	1-3, 1 out	123, 1 out
Total 2019	9974	2574	798	664	12158	2923	1864	1643
Percent of total PA	.053	.014	.004	.004	.065	.016	.010	.009
In 733 PA	39	10	3	3	48	11	7	6
Total 2019 GIDP	996	248	53	65	1326	434	185	159
GIDP Percentage	.010	.096	.066	.098	.109	.148	.099	.097
In 733 PA	3.9	1	0.2	0.3	5.2	1.7	0.7	0.6
GIDP Value	.411	.565	.777	.961	.224	.429	.478	.752
Final Value	1.608	.551	.162	.245	1.167	.732	.348	.470

Let me explain. I took all double play situations found what percentage each one was of the total season PAs. I then multiplied them by 733 to determine how many of each situation Tate would face in a season. I then took the total of double plays in each situation to average determine the likelihood of a DP in each one. I then multiply that by the number of DP situations our hypothetical potato will be in. Knowing that Tate will never make contact, we know he will also never hit into a double play. Knowing this, every double play an average player hits will add value to Tater's WAR. To determine the negative impact of a DP, you take the run expectancy of the base-out state had the player made just a plain old out (if they don't make an out it gets incorporated in the batting section), and subtract the run expectancy of the base-out state after the double play. One I get those, I multiplied that by the number of double plays Tate hypothetically saved by never making contact. The last thing to do is just add up those values. This gets us to a 5.3 RAR for baserunning!
-194.9

Replacement Level

If Replacement Level Runs = (570 x (MLB Games/2,430)) x (Runs Per Win/lgPA) x PA then 733 PA will be (570x(2430/2430))x(10.296/186516)x733 giving Tater a boost of 23.1 RAR.
-171.8 RAR

Fielding

This last category is the most difficult to determine, and thusly the most controversial. For weeks I've been thinking about how I could capture the damage done to a team by replacing their center fielder with a potato. I tried understanding UZR and DRS, but that stuff is impenetrable. Alas, I came up with an idea. I would use brute force. I will go through every ball hit to center in a team's season, and mark down what I think the outcome would have been had the center fielder vanished as the ball hit the bat. If there's another fielder there to make the play, nothing changes. If there's one not too far away, maybe it changes a little. If there's nobody else in the vicinity, it would change a lot. But first, I needed a team. I settled on the Reds because their outfield was close to average by both UZR and DRS, in 2020 and also in the span of 2018-2020. In addition, the same holds true of their center fielders. I would never have been able to do this if it were not for two things. Firstly, Baseball Savant. The ability to filter for every play to your exact specifications and have video for each of those plays in the list was essential. The second is the 2020 season. There is no way in hell I would go through a full season's worth of balls to the outfield. But in 2020, Reds centerfielders only made 227 plays out there. Much more manageable. Now, I want to warn you as I was doing the list I couldn't shake the feeling that I was being too conservative with my estimates. It felt like I was marking too many would-be-triples as doubles and too many would-be-inside-the-park-home-runs as triples. I only ended up with like four homers which is probably way too little. I tried to compensate and make up for it by stretching it here and there, but I don't think that did much. I'll post the spreadsheet HERE and the Baseball Savant page it's based on HERE, and if anyone wished to re-do the list, I'll be happy to add it in an edit. So here's what I came up with. In 2020, 227 balls were fielded by Reds center fielders. 86 of them went for singles, 22 went for doubles, 3 went for triples. There were no inside-the-park home runs. There were 109 catches made, plus 7 sac flies. This gives opponents a .490 wOBA on balls hit to Reds center fielders. I didn't check it, but I'm going to assume that's close to average. After going through each play one by one, I determined that if there were a potato in center instead of a human, they'd end up with 52 outs, 4 sac flies, 28 singles, 96 doubles, 43 triples, and 4 inside-the-park home runs. If that seems like too little, you're probably right. But this is what I came out with and we're going to go with it. If this were to happen, opposing batters would end up with a .980 wOBA. From here, we treat it the same as we would treat a hitter's wOBA. We determine the amount of opportunities a center fielder would get in a full season. In 2019, center fielders made 20962 plays. That's about 700 per team over a full season. So we'll use the same formula we use to determine batting runs.
((.980^{^wOBA} -.490^{^lg} ^{^wOBA} )/1.1857^{^wOBA} ^{^Scale} )x700^{^{Opportunities}} = 289.3 runs
-461 RAR
Hoo boy. That's quite a number. If we convert it to wins we end up with close to -45 WAR. You'd need three of me to equal the damage this guy would do. If you had Tate in center, you could replace an average right fielder with 1923 Babe Ruth, left fielder with 2002 Bonds, and first baseman with 1927 Gehrig and still come out 5 WAR behind. -45 wins turns a 100 win team into a 55 win team. It turns a .500 team into a 36 win team. Before we even start counting WAR, we assume a 48 win replacement level. This guy knocks all that out on his own, making you start from scratch.
TL;DR -45 WAR. No, don't ever do this.

Better Know the Ballot, Se4 Ep2: Micheal Cuddyer

CBS Article: Why MLB teams might start changing how they value high-contact hitters (McNeil mentioned)

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-mlb-teams-might-start-changing-how-they-value-high-contact-hitters/
Is a high-average renaissance coming in baseball? By Matt Snyder
"Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game" was published in 2003. Michael Lewis' book was then turned into a movie that was released in 2011. And yet, in 2021, there are still so many people out there with the misconception that playing "Moneyball" was about a specific stat ("Moneyball is on-base percentage!" the ignorant will cry out) or even some sort of "sabermetrics" revolution to make people hate the stats they long held near and dear in favor of "newfangled" stuff.
I'll pause for laughter.
No, it's actually about finding market inefficiencies. That is, what skillsets are other teams undervaluing and how can we acquire players -- mostly cheaply -- to exploit this for our gain. There have been several iterations since the initial movement from average to OBP and slugging. Defense is certainly up there, a combination of shifting/positioning and getting undervalued defensive players. Things have obviously been done on the pitching side, such as shortening the game with super bullpens and using openers, among other things.
In light of where things are headed right now in baseball, I'm wondering if we're coming full circle very soon with what type of hitter is undervalued.
That is to say, while the initial "Moneyball" movement set baseball on a path, where average was less important than the other two main rate stats (meaning more emphasis was put on drawing walks -- and, in related matters, working deep counts -- and hitting for power). In the process, we have seen a great shift toward the so-called Three True Outcomes (home runs, walks, strikeouts).
As a result, who got left a bit behind? The high-average, high-contact hitters, possibly with low power.
I said I'm wondering if we're about to come full circle because not only do I believe there's a chance at a market inefficiency in there, I also think the forces of the game are swinging toward this type of hitter being undervalued.
Strikeouts continue to rise. More and more, it seems like whichever team each game hits "the big home run" is the one that goes on to win. Here are the lowest batting averages in MLB since World War I:
1968: .237 1967: .242 1972: .244 2020: .245 If we're wondering about the small sample or want to blame the pandemic, the 2019 average was .252 and the league hit .248 in 2018.
If some of those years above jumped out, it's for good reason. After 1967-68, the pitcher's mound was lowered. After 1972, the American League added the DH.
Meanwhile, in 2020, strikeouts per team game actually dropped -- to the second-most all-time -- from 2019, but 2020 marked the first year it wasn't a new strikeouts per game record since 2007.
It's gotten to the point that it isn't just a small subset fans or curmudgeon broadcasters whining. Many baseball fans acknowledge the game needs more on-field action. At this point, pretty open-minded and even-keel people are discussing that something has to change. Home runs are great. Walks were far too long an underappreciated part of the game. Big strikeouts are excellent to watch. It's just that we should have more than those things along with groundballs and fly balls going right at nearly perfectly positioned defenders.
On one hand, the pitchers and defense are very good. On another, maybe the shift in philosophy left too many different types of hitters behind. Maybe things should tilt back a bit the other way?
After stepping down from his perch as Cubs president, Theo Epstein took a job with the commissioner's office and said something along these lines (emphasis mine).
"As the game evolves, we all have an interest in ensuring the changes we see on the field make the game as entertaining and action-packed as possible for the fans, while preserving all that makes baseball so special. I look forward to working with interested parties throughout the industry to help us collectively navigate toward the very best version of our game."
He had recently sort of lamented his own role in shaping the game, too. Via The Athletic:
"There are some threats to it because of the way the game is evolving," Epstein said. "I take some responsibility for that. Executives like me who have spent a lot of time using analytics and other measures to try to optimize individual and team performance have unwittingly had a negative impact on the aesthetic value of the game and the entertainment value of the game in some respects."
The hunch here is Epstein will have commissioner Rob Manfred's ear pretty strongly in the next few years. We've also already seen Manfred discussing things like either banning or limiting the shift along with something to curtail strikeouts, such as lowering and/or moving back the mound.
Zeroing in on the possibility of shifts going away, and low-strikeout guys become even more valuable. It doesn't take an Epstein-savvy front office member to figure out the chances of finding a hole without the defense perfectly crafted to a spray chart increase.
Further, after seeing so many strikeouts in huge spots with runners on base over the past several years, I can't help but think that even if a hitter that sits something like .230/.340/.500 can be valuable, evening that out with a high-average contact hitter to keep the line moving at times would be beneficial in creating a more well-rounded lineup.
The poster boy here is D.J. LeMahieu. Believe it or not, Epstein actually inherited him with the Cubs, but traded him away his first offseason with Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers. Stewart looked like the high-walk, high-power guy teams coveted at the time (important update: He wasn't). Despite winning a batting title, winning three Gold Gloves and making two All-Star teams, LeMahieu only got a two-year, $24 million deal with the Yankees after the 2018 season as mostly an afterthought in a huge offseason. He went on to finish fourth in AL MVP voting. Then he finished third last season, leading the majors with a .364 average while also pacing the AL in OBP, OPS and OPS+.
Finally heavily sought after, LeMahieu got six years and $90 million to stay with the Yankees this offseason. Yes, he's developed his power, but he only struck out 90 times in 655 plate appearances in 2019 and 21 times in 195 plate appearances in 2020.
With everything conspiring in this direction anyway, I think LeMahieu is starting a wave.
Here are some others (in a non-exhaustive list) who could become increasingly valuable moving forward into the next decade of baseball evolution.
Tommy La Stella - A broken leg cost La Stella half the 2019 season in what looked like his career year. He already had 16 homers, yet had still only struck out 28 times in 321 plate appearances. Last year, he had the lowest strikeout percentage in baseball while hitting .281 with a .370 OBP.
Ketel Marte - Pay too much attention to the loss of power in just 45 games last year at your peril. He still hit .287 and was tough to strikeout. I'm not expecting a full bounce-back to MVP-caliber levels of 2019, but his bat-on-ball skills have pretty steadily improved for five years straight.
David Fletcher - He's improved all three years in all three rate stats and sports a career .292 average with just 123 strikeouts in 1,190 plate appearances. He also ranks near the very bottom of the league in stuff like barrel percentage, exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Sending some conventional 2019 people running for the hills is a good trait for someone to have when looking for market inefficiency, right?
Jeff McNeil - Why pick between McNeil and a Pete Alonso type when you have both? McNeil in 248 career games is a .319 hitter with only 123 strikeouts in 1,024 plate appearances. Like Fletcher, his "batted ball profile" leaves a lot to be desired, too.
Trea Turner - We've seen former Turner teammates Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon strike it very rich in free agency while his current teammate Juan Soto rightfully will garner a ton more attention here in the short term. Just don't forget about Trea. His strikeout percentages aren't excessive -- remember, as a leadoff man he takes tons of plate appearances -- and he's a career .296 hitter. He makes consistent contact, has some power and can fly.
Kevin Newman - Newman had a dreadful 2020 season, but it was only 45 games in the middle of a pandemic. I'm not going to harp on that when we've got 130 games of a .308 hitter in 2019 who only struck out 62 times in 531 plate appearances. Don't sleep on him.
Jean Segura - Segura became a different hitter in 2020. His strikeout percentage jumped from 11.8 to 20.7. Along with it went his previously high average. But he walked a lot more and his OBP went up. It was weird. Regardless, keep in mind what a fluky season 2020 was. Segura was in the top five percent of toughest hitters to strikeout in 2018 and 2019 while topping a .300 average 2016-18. He's 30. I have faith in him being productive with a good average and lower strikeout rate in 2021. And hey, maybe he'll even keep walking. I never said it was bad.
Jake Cronenworth - As a rookie last year, Cronenworth put together a season in which he would've struck out around 90 times in a full year while hitting .285. His minor-league and amateur profile has long shown someone with good contact skills capable of a higher average. He was never a top-100 prospect in the minors, but he now heads into territory where he can have an impact simply by being differently valuable than the 2010s prototype.
To be clear, this premise isn't even remotely saying teams should load up on only these types of players. The best lineups are the most well-rounded. Get you a few of these types to pair with some big boppers and things would be looking pretty damn nice. The conditions are ripe for a bit of a sea change in how hitters are valued in these next few years. Watch LeMahieu, La Stella and company for a guide while someone like Cronenworth carries the torch to the next generation.

Teams that should've won the World Series, but didn't.

Hi guys, today I’d like to talk about teams that many think should have won the World Series, but didn’t.
Granted, there are a lot that probably should have, but I have a few that stand out among the rest. If you think that there are teams that I missed, please tell me in the comments. And this list isn't in any order, so you can say who you think was the best to not win it all in a Worst to Best type list in the comments. Anyway, onto the list:

2012 Tigers - Don’t let the 88-74 record fool you. This team had Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera, a still good Prince Fielder, Delmon Young, a still good Alex Avila, a stacked pitching core led by Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Doug Fister, and then some. They defeated the #2 seed A’s, then swept the #1 seed Yankees, only to get swept by the Giants in the World Series. They should have won that one, it’s as if they handed the title to the Giants that year.
2001 Mariners - 116 wins. Lost in 5 to the Yankees in the ALCS. Haven't been back to the postseason since, and only team to never make the World Series. Need I say more?
1985 Cardinals - If not for that shit call in Game 6 that won the Royals their first title, the Cardinals probably would have pulled this one off despite their .120 batting average in the series.
1982 Brewers - Best record in the majors with 95 wins, came back from a 0-2 series hole against the Angels in the ALCS, but blew a 3-1 lead late in Game 7 to the Cardinals due to a poor pitching change. The Brewers have not made it back since.
2011 Brewers - Ah yes, another great Brewers team. 96 wins, Prince Fielder, Ryan Brawn, #2 seed in the NL, lost to those fucking Cardinals again, this time in the NLCS. I really wanted them to win that series. Was hoping for a Tigers-Brewers World Series that year, but the Rangers and Cards fucked that one up.
2001 Yankees - Coming off a 3-peat, the Yankees were looking to win their 4th straight title against the D-Backs, a team in their 4th year of existence. And they nearly did. But Mariano Rivera of all people blew a save in the bottom of the 9th inning of Game 7, which gave the D-Backs their first and only title in their first and only appearance in the Fall Classic.
1997 Indians - Game 7 went to extra innings thanks to Jose Mesa who blew a save, but what really handed the Marlins their first title was an error by 1B Tony Fernandez which got the winning run on base, and he deserves FAR more blame than Mesa for the Indians losing this series.
1986 Red Sox - Though the curse is over, many Red Sox fans wish to forget this blunder. Like the 2011 Rangers, the '86 Red Sox were one strike away from winning it all twice in Game 6, yet the Mets, who "weren't the Knicks", came back to tie the game, and with Bill Buckner's error, the Mets forced Game 7, which they also came from behind to win their second and most recent title. Still pretty admirable that the Red Sox took a 108-win Mets team (hard to believe the Mets did that before, eh?) to 7 games.
2020 Atlanta Braves - Winning their 3rd straight division title and completely shutting out the Reds along with ending the legendary meme of the Marlins never losing a playoff series, Atlanta would face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. The Braves took a 2-0 series lead but gave up 11 runs in the top of the first in game 3 and lost by a score of 15-3. However, they would rebound in game 4 and took a 3-1 series lead and were looking to send the Dodgers home. In the third inning of game 5, Marcell Ozuna cost the Braves of a run and a 3-0 lead due to an embarrassing baserunning error, and the Dodgers would scores 7 unanswered runs to win the game 7-3 and won game 6 by a score of 3-1 to force a game 7. The Braves once again took an early 2-0 lead before the Dodgers tied it but they took the lead again only to follow it up with even more embarrassing baserunning. Late home runs by Kike Hernandez and Cody Bellinger would give the Dodgers the lead and the series for good and Atlanta suffered yet another epic choke (and this was on the same day the Falcons won their first game of the season). But you want to know what the best part was? Before 2020, the all time record for teams who took a 2-0 lead in the League Championship Series was 28-3 (which is major history in Atlanta). If only Mookie Betts didn't make those incredible plays to take that home run away.
2011 Texas Rangers - Of all the 6 teams in the MLB that have never won a World Series, the Rangers have been the closest and have the most heartbreaking losses of all. Starting in 2011, they would return to the World Series for the 2nd straight year after losing in 5 games to San Francisco in the previous year, this time facing the St. Louis Cardinals, who were one of the teams involved in the crazy last day of the 2011 regular season, rallying from being 10.5 games out of a Wild Card spot to winning the National League Pennant while beating the Phillies and Brewers prior. The two teams split the first 2 games in St. Louis before heading to Arlington for game 3, when Albert Pujols hit 3 home runs during a 16-7 rout in favor of the Cardinals. The Rangers would win the next 2 games and would be one win away from giving Arlington their first World Series title (and a second parade for Dallas as the Mavericks of the NBA won their first NBA championship, and Arlington is close to Dallas, so it counts). Heading back to Busch Stadium, the Rangers would hold a 7-5 lead in the 9th inning with David Freese at the plate down to his last strike. On the next pitch, Freese hit it deep to right and over Nelson Cruz and just like that, the game was tied on a 2-RBI Triple by Freese that Cruz easily could've caught. It wasn't done there, the Rangers would regain the lead in the 10th on a Josh Hamilton 2 run homer, and once again, the Cardinals were down to their final strike with Lance Berkman at the plate, and just like Freese, he tied the game. In the 11th, David Freese, the man who tied the game in the 9th, hit the game winning home run to force a game 7. A world series that easily could've been won by the Rangers, taken away twice. The Cardinals would win game 7 by a score on 6-2 and ripped the out the hearts of every Rangers fan after a choke possibly bigger than 28-3.
2015 Texas Rangers - We're not done with the Rangers yet however, as 2015 had a choke that was as big as 2011. The team would win the AL West a year after finishing with the worst record in the American League. In the ALDS, they took a 2-0 series lead and were looking to sweep the heavily favored Toronto Blue Jays back in Arlington. However, the Blue Jays would dominate the next 2 games and forced a winner take all game 5 in Toronto. In the do or die game 5, the Rangers took a 2-0 lead early before Toronto tied it in the next 3 innings. Then, in the 7th inning, Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin hit the bat of Shin-Soo Choo and Rougned Odor came in to score the go ahead run and give Texas a 3-2 lead. But in the bottom of the 7th, three consecutive errors combined with Odor failing to catch Josh Donaldson's popup bloop tied the game at 3, and then lead to Jose Bautista's epic bat flip to give Toronto the lead for good and would win the game 6-3 along with the series. Had the Rangers not committed those 3 errors, they would've won the game and advanced to the ALCS. It should be noted that both Texas teams that year choked in the ALDS, the other being the Houston Astros against the Kansas City Royals, who were also a World Series favorite. In game 4 of that series, the Wild Card Astros had a 6-2 lead heading into the 8th inning and were 6 outs away from upsetting the top seeded Royals, but 5 straight singles combined with an error by Carlos Correa tied the game and the Royals would win the game by a score of 9-6 and then win the series in game 5 back in Kansas City.
2012 Washington Nationals - Even though they won in 2019, Nats fans would still wish that they could forget this collapse. They were the best team in baseball that year and had made their first playoff appearance in D.C and the franchises first since 1981 when they were the Expos. They were facing the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS and after taking the opening game, the Nats were mascaraed in the next 2 games before Jayson Werth forced a game 5 with a walk off home run in game 4. In game 5, Washington walked all over Adam Wainwright and they had a 6-0 lead after just three innings, but the Cardinals would cut that lead to 7-5 heading into the 9th. In the final inning, Carlos Beltrán hit a leadoff double and advanced to third on a groundout before the next batter struck out to put Washington within one win of advancing to the NLCS before both Yadier Molina and World Series hero David Freese walked to load the bases and on the first pitch to Daniel Descalso, the Cardinals tied the game at 7 before Pete Kozma gave St. Louis the lead for good at 9-7. This was the start of the Washington Nationals game 5 chokes in the NLDS before finally winning it all in 2019.
2019 Los Angeles Dodgers - Even though they won the next year, this was still a painful moment for Dodger fans. After winning 106 games and another NL West crown, the Dodgers were heavily favored to make the World Series for the 3rd straight year after losing the previous 2 times, and against the Washington Nationals in the NLDS, this would be a total cakewalk as the Nats still haven't won a playoff series in their existence. After splitting the first 4 games, the series would shift back to LA for a winner take all game 5. It looked like the Dodgers were sure to win as they had scored 3 runs in the first 2 innings off of 2 home runs and Walker Buehler being unhittable and only allowing one run. But everything changed in the top of the 8th inning. With Clayton Kershaw on the mound and the Dodgers being 6 outs away from advancing to their 4th straight NLCS and hosting the St. Louis Cardinals, everything fell apart. On back to back pitches, Kershaw allowed home runs to both Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto and just like that, the game was tied at three. In the bottom of the 9th, it seemed as if Will Smith had walked it off and the Dodgers would win the game, but he fell just short of it and the game went into extra innings. The Nationals loaded the bases with nobody out against Joe Kelly and former Dodger Howie Kendrick hit a grand slam that gave Washington a 7-3 lead, and in the blink of an eye, Dodger Stadium cleared up. The Dodgers went down in order in the bottom frame despite challenging if the final out was caught or not, and the 106 win heavy favorite Dodgers were sent home against a team that no one thought had a chance at winning the series, once again losing on their home field while having to watch the eventual World Series champion celebrate for the 4th straight year.
2017 Cleveland Indians - After blowing a 3-1 lead in the World Series to the Cubs the previous year, the Indians swore that they would return, and they had promise. At one point in the season, the Indians had won 22 straight games and won the AL Central again with 102 wins and were awarded with the top seed in the American League. Facing the Wild Card New York Yankees, the Indians were considered to be heavy favorites to return to the World Series, and it seemed like that after taking the first 2 games at home and looked to sweep the Bronx Bombers at Yankee Stadium. However, they lost both games in New York and their chance at winning the series in game 3 was taken away by Aaron Judge as he robbed Francisco Lindor of a 2 run home run that would've won the game for the Indians. In game 5, the Yankees would once again dominate the Indians as they won the game by a score of 5-2 and sent Cleveland home after what was a year full of promise. We were so close to laughing at the Yankees failure, but Cleveland choked and failed to give us joy, but thankfully Houston would beat the pinstripes in the ALCS, so at least we were able to say "Da Jankees Lose".
2019 Houston Astros: The Astros posted their 3rd straight 100 win season and won their 3rd straight division title along with the best record in baseball and just like the Dodgers, were the heavy favorites to make and win the World Series. In the playoffs, the Wild Card Rays gave the Astros a harder time than most thought they would but prevailed in 5 games before taking down the Yankees again on Jose Altuve's walk off home run in game 6 to assure that no World Series during the 2010s would feature the Yankees. In the World Series, the Astros were the overwhelming favorites over a Cinderella Story in the Washington Nationals, who, until this year, had never appeared in a World Series and had never won a single playoff series in their existence. But as they've done all year long, the Nationals "stayed in the fight" and took the first 2 games in Houston and the team that no one thought had even a miniscule chance at winning the World Series went to D.C with a 2-0 lead over the Houston Astros juggernaut. But in the first World Series played in the nation's capital since 1933, Houston would win all three games at Nationals Park and headed back to Houston with a 3-2 series lead over the Nats and were looking to win their second World Series in three years. Back at Minute Maid Park for game 6, the Astros had taken a 2-1 lead that lasted until the 5th inning, with home runs by Adam Eaton and Juan Soto putting the Nats up for good as they went on to win 7-2 to force a game 7. In the final game of the series, Houston took an early 2-0 lead with Zack Greinke dominating the Nationals, but after giving up a home run to Anthony Rendon and a walk to Juan Soto, Greinke was pulled and was replaced by Will Harris, who immediately gave up a 2 run home run to Howie Kendrick to give the Nats a 3-2 lead. Washington would win the game 6-2 and win their first ever World Series dating back to when they were born as the Montreal Expos.

Motor City Management - Detroit Tigers Report 2025 - Little Brother No More?

If you'd like to catch up on previous installments, you can do so here: Initial Setup, 2020 Season Report, 2021 Season Report, 2022 Season Report, 2023 Season Report, 2024 Season Report
Let's take a look at the award winners from 2024 to wrap that year up and then get into the moves made and the season recap for 2025!

2024 Offseason News

League News:

Austin Adams is named Reliever of the Year in the AL, Josh Hader in the NL.
Seattle RF Zac Veen and Dodger 1B Michael Busch win Rookie of the Year in their leagues. Veen looks like a superstar.
Cleveland SP Daniel Espino edges out Casey Mize for the Cy Young award in the AL with Sixto Sanchez winning in the NL.
The AL MVP goes to Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr., while in the NL it's a 5th, 4th in a row, for Cody Bellinger.

Detroit Achievements:

C Christian Vazquez wins his 1st GG.
2B Willi Castro wins his 1st GG.
RF Yaya Chentouf wins his 1st SS.
Detroit Manager Jason Varitek wins Manager of the Year!
SP Casey Mize finishes 2nd in CYA voting.
SP Kumar Rocker receives CYA consideration.
RF Yaya Chentouf finished 5th in MVP voting.
2B Willi Castro and SP Casey Mize received MVP consideration.
SP Kumar Rocker represents the USA in the WBC.
RP Brett de Geus represents the USA in the WBC.
3B Jordan Diaz represents Columbia in the WBC.
CF Jairo Pomares represents Cuba in the WBC.
2B Willi Castro represents Puerto Rico in the WBC.

Offseason Transactions

Owner gave us a $14,000,000 budget increase, but we have huge arbitration estimates for Castro and Mize.
League News:

RF Ramon Laureano signs with the Cubs for $130M/6.
C Francisco Mejia signs with the Brewers for $24M/7.
3B Yoan Moncada signs with the Cardinals for $136M/5.
RP Joe Jimenez signs with the Cardinals for $5.6M/2.
SP Chris Paddack signs with the Phillies for $103M/5.
SP Matthew Boyd signs with the Astros for $32M/3.
1B Josh Bell signs with the Twins for $13.4M/2.
SS Trevor Story signs with the Nationals for $116M/5.
SP Pablo Lopez signs with the Phillies for $113M/5.
SS Carlos Correa signs with the Rockies for $74M/5.
SP Tyler Mahle signs with the Red Sox for $82M/5.
SS Willy Adames stays with the Rays for $111M/6.
SP Dinelson Lamet signs with the Rangers for $92M/5.
SP C.C. Sabathia and OF Manny Ramirez make the HoF.

Detroit Departures:

RP Drew Carlton
SP/RP Sandy Alcantara

Detroit Trades:
Trade #1 Detroit receives: SP Jackson Phipps, $3,500,000 Oakland receives: SP Franklin Perez, RP Hector Flores, RP Luis Araujo
I've been meaning to deal Perez for awhile now due to his fragile status and after seeing that he couldn't cut it in the rotation for me, I decided to move him. Phipps looked great in the rotation and in the bullpen last year, whereas Perez looked elite in the pen but not in the rotation. I need the cheap, controlled contract in my rotation.
Trade #2 Detroit receives: SP Luke Weaver (COL retains 60%), SS Aiverson Rodriguez Colorado receives: C Jake Rogers, 1B Brandon Smith
Colorado has been trying to move Weaver all season and I finally decided to see what they wanted. I'm looking for a reliable fifth arm and I think Weaver gives me that. He's had four straight seasons of performance slightly better than league average, including the most recent in a horrible park for pitchers. He's been a bit unlucky according to his FIP vs ERA+, so I'm hopeful he'll be even better for us than he was for the Rockies, plus, it's a one-year rental and Colorado is paying for 60% of the bill. I'm pretty jazzed about Rodriguez too, he had a good enough year in A+ to head to AA next year and he has elite defensive abilities, which I could use in a future short stop. All in all it costs me a first base prospect who can't play the field at all and my backup catcher - which means I can clear the role for Romo to go ahead and come to the major league level.
Trade #3 Detroit receives: RP Isaiah Magwood, 2B Cody Schrier, $3,000,000 Arizona receives: 2B Marcus Chiu, SP Beau Burrows
Burrows has looked legit for me in AAA the last two seasons, both in relief and as a starter. Chiu is at a logjam at 2B in my prospect pipeline, with both being 28, I don't see them with a future on my team. Burrows may be a steal for the Diamondbacks, but I love the prospects I'm getting in return.
Trade #4 Detroit receives: RP Connor Jones, $350,000 St. Louis receives: RF Yusniel Diaz
I wanted Diaz to be more for me, but he never really got it done at the MLB level. He continued to be decent in AAA, but I think he's a AAAA guy. Maybe he'll flourish in St. Louis, but I like the chances of Jones being good for me for a bit in the pen.
Trade #5 Detroit receives: RP Jorge Alcala (OAK retains 75%) Oakland receives: SP Michael Baumann
Alcala was a 2.3 WAR reliever last year and I think he could be even better with Vazquez behind the dish. Baumann is coming off of a 6 month injury - so he could be good, but my scout is out on him and the injury scares me.
Trade #6 Detroit receives: RP DL Hall, $1,000,000 Arizona receives: RP David McKay
McKay is coming off of a 6 month injury that cost him all of last season and is denying going to AAA. Hall gives me some option years and a nice MLC that I can use as an extra starter or bullpen arm.
Trade #7 Detroit receives: RP Andrew Dalquist, SS Layant Tapia Chicago receives: RP David Parkinson
I don't have enough spots on my major league roster or my 40 man, so Parkinson is another casualty of this. I grab a couple of prospects to restock the pitching reserves and Tapia helps out some of my more barren levels in the minors right now. Plus it clears the spot on the 40-man and Parkinson hasn't been good in the majors.
Trade #8 Detroit receives: RP Levi Kelly, SS Nicolas Perez, $4,000,000 Arizona receives: SP Tarik Skubal
Arizona wants Skubal as a starter and I don't think he's going to crack the rotation this year, not with the money I decided to pay Weaver. I may regret that, but Skubal's personality profile leaves a lot to be desired despite his solid year in the rotation last year. Kelly gives me a more natural bullpen arm as his replacement at the major league level, which I like - he's also more cost controlled and younger. Perez has obvious upside - he's a future gold glover at short stop and I'll just pray the hit tool improves to go along with it.
Detroit Additions:
C Christian Vazquez - I had to give him $7,500,000 over 2 years, presumably due to the gold glove. I wasn't ready to risk moving his ability behind the plate.
2B Willi Castro - I may have jumped the gun here, but I decided to extend Castro. I'll pay him $118M over 5 years, which I believe will be much cheaper than if I'd let him continue through his last arbitration season. I didn't do this with Casey Mize and his initial demands are 40M+, so this is a reaction to that.

Spring Training

We have $11.9M available for the season, $12,000,000 for the draft and $5,500,000 for international amateurs. We're spending the maximum allowed on development.

Regular Season

First Half
We're projected to win 94 games this season and finish 10 games back of the Indians. Damn them. That should make us the second best team in the AL, according to the predictions. Willi Castro is projected as a top hitter, while Mize and Manning are projected to be top pitchers. I'm hopeful that Rocker joins that as well.
We open against the Astros and take a 4-3 win in extra innings. I hope that we are this tough all season. We start off strong, going 8-1 through our first three series' leading up to a matchup with our division foes in Cleveland, who are also 8-1. I expected a fight, but we punched them in the mouth right away and secured a series sweep. If we can play like this, it's going to be a phenomenal season.
Our twelve game winning streak ends with a loss to the Athletics, but we sit at 13-2 following the run, which is better than expected. The Royals are off to a hot start as well and sit in 2nd in the division, but our first matchup with them results in a sweep for us and pushes them 5 games back and into a tie with the Indians. As April ends, we sit at 25-8, a comfortable 4 game lead on the Royals. The Indians are struggling at 16-17 and 9 games back. I expect they'll sort it out though, but we look really nice after April. Notably, Evan White leads the league with a .378 average, but Mike Moustakas is off to a hot start with 18 homeruns for the Twins, an 88 homerun pace.
On May 8th we decide to move Jackson Phipps into the pen, who has been struggling, and give Genesis Cabrera a shot in the rotation again, where he hasn't featured heavily since 2022. We also optioned Kyle Dohy to AAA and brought up Jonathan Bowlan again.
Into June though and we're sitting pretty at 43-18, 6 games up on the Royals and an astounding 13 games up on the struggling Indians. The team is 1st in runs scored and 1st in runs against, something I'd love to see continue. We also feature the best zone rating and fewest errors, and also have the top base running team. We seem to be doing well.
2025 Draft
We're becoming accustomed to picking lower in the draft and this year we have the 26th pick. We select SP Zach Stephens in the first round, RP Mitch Naron in the 2nd, CF Drew Burress in the 3rd, CF Jim O'Connor in the 4th and CF Jerry Turner in the 5th.
Second Half
We continue rolling into June, but midway through the month we lose Isaac Paredes for two months with a bruised kneecap. He's put up 2.8 WAR and was on pace for 6.3, so that's a tough loss. Luckily we have Jordan Diaz and he's ready to go, so he'll slot in at third base. We bring up Addison Barger. We carry a 63-24 record into July, comfortably sitting in 1st place with a 10 game lead over the Royals. The Indians sit at 43-44 and seem completely out of it, 20 games back of the division.
The Red Sox make a trade to acquire Tyler Glasnow to bolster their rotation. The White Sox ship Eloy Jimenez to the Toronto Blue Jays. Joey Gallo gets moved to the Angels for Luis Rengifo. The Diamondbacks ship SP Zac Gallen to the Brewers near the deadline. Gallen extends with the Brewers for 7 years and $134,000,000.
We hold firm at the deadline and go into August at 79-36. Near the end of the month we lose RP Jackson Phipps for 8-9 weeks, which is one of the pitchers we can most afford to lose. We call up RP Michael Bienlien. On September 7th, we've officially clinched the division already - but there is still some alarming news in our division. Namely, that both wild card spots have already been clinched in the AL too - by the Kansas City Royals and the, you guessed it, Cleveland Indians. Both teams from my division. In fact, the team that was 43-44 and looked toast? They are finishing the season with a 97-65 record. An astounding turnaround. We should feel more comfortable heading into the playoffs, but I do not.

Playoffs

We're able to stay at home and watch the Wild Card, which, of course, goes as we feared it would. The Indians defeat the Royals 10-3. They're coming. That means that while the Rangers and Red Sox battle, we get to face the second best team in the AL for our first matchup. The team that sent us home last year and is the back-to-back defending champion.
Division Series
Here they are. The damn Indians. It's mostly the same scary core. Francisco Lindor - Jose Ramirez - Aristides Aquino - Triston Casas - the deadly middle of the order. Only now they've added Nolan Jones and Jake Bauers to the end of that, who both hit 40 homeruns. They led the league in homeruns as a team and were 2nd only to us in runs scored. How about runs against? They were 2nd only to us. This is powerhouse versus powerhouse.
Game 1 - Indians def. Tigers, 3-0 Of course, we lose at home - to Shane Beiber, who we beat every time during the regular season. He shut us down here. We can't have this, not like this.
Game 2 - Tigers def. Indians, 11-2 Alright, this is what we need out of the league's best offense. Riley Greene drove in three runs in the first and we never looked back - I love jumping on their starter early. We saw four bullpen arms, so let's hope that helps us as we go.
Game 3 - Indians def. Tigers, 2-1 I mean.. this hurts. Rocker throws a gem and they get a run on Levi Kelly to win it. They threw a bullpen game against us and still won, due to Espino getting hurt. I cannot believe they silenced our bats with a full bullpen outing in back to back games. Now we are on the ropes and we should be the favorites.
Game 4 - Tigers def. Indians, 3-0 Luke. Weaver. Offseason acquisition that I had hoped was better for us than he was in Coors. Well, he earned some of his paycheck in this one, going eight innings and only allowing 3 hits. No runs. What a performance. He helped us force a game 5, where it will all come down to Casey Mize versus Shane Beiber.
Game 5 - Tigers def. Indians, 2-1 Huge sigh of relief! They scored in the first, and Riley Greene blasted a two-run shot in the bottom half of the inning to get us the lead. Thankfully, we never gave up that lead despite our offense being silenced. Mize and Beiber both went 7 innings and gave up 5 hits each. They both struck out 7. Our bullpen, de Geus and Kelly, shut it down. They didn't allow a hit. We survived. Barely. It should be easier from here on, but nothing is ever easy in the playoffs. But, for the first time under my leadership, we're heading to the League Championship Series!
Willi Castro was named series MVP.
League Championship Series
We matchup with the Boston Red Sox who were middle of the pack in the AL, but won the AL East. They're led by Rafael Devers and Didi Gregorius on offense, with Andrew Heaney and Tyler Glasnow in the rotation. They're without Blake Snell, Tyler Mahle, Darwinzon Hernandez and Victor Arano, all pitchers.
Game 1 - Tigers def. Red Sox, 5-3 Willi Castro and Riley Greene provide the run support and Manning gives us enough of a performance to hold onto our lead. The bullpen shuts it down, allowing only one hit. This is a nice win in the first game. The Red Sox starter, Tanner Houck , was injured.
Game 2 - Tigers def. Red Sox, 4-1 Rocker was awesome, going six innings and giving up one run. He might be who I count on the most nowadays. It's him or Mize for sure. White and Castro added homeruns to help us out on offense. Our bullpen is once again lights out. Starting 2-0 is much nicer in this series.
Game 3 - Red Sox def. Tigers, 6-2 Weaver just got left out there too long, giving up some early runs and then he gets beat up later in the game. We should've gone to the pen sooner. We also should've scored more runs, but Heaney shackled us a bit. We're okay, we'll bounce back.
Game 4 - Tigers def. Red Sox, 9-5 We had our ace on the bump. They had Glasnow. There were 32 hits in this game. We had to go the pen early, after four and a third, but our bullpen is pretty fresh. In fact, they don't give up a run over the rest of the game. Boston gets five innings out of Glasnow, but they had some bumps in the pen, including when, after going into the 11th inning tied, we managed the four runs that would win us the game. Isaac Paredes had 6 hits, which sets an AL playoff extra-inning game record. Mountcastle tied the record with 5 strikeouts and Castro tied the record for doubles, with 3. We are one game away from the World Series!
Game 5 - Red Sox def. Tigers, 4-0 We had 9 hits to their 6. We just couldn't string them together. Tanner Houck threw a complete game, saving their bullpen, and shutting us down. Matt Manning gave up the four that cost us the game, which we could afford to lose. We have Rocker on the mound next game and I'd like to close it out there and not go to Game 7.
Game 6 - Tigers def. Red Sox, 4-3 Extra innings baby! We're going to the World Series! Rocker was great, as was Ward for the Red Sox. Our bullpen was decent, but it was Noah Syndergaard out of the pen for the Red Sox who gives up the final RBI to Willi Castro in the 10th. Yet, before that even happened - we trailed 3-0 heading into the bottom of the 9th. Castro walked and Chentouf doubled. Greene flew out and then an Evan White homerun tied the game to even give us the chance. What a game. What a series win.
Willi Castro was Series MVP.
World Series
The San Diego Padres eliminated the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series. The Padres are great, maybe the best team in baseball. Our 108 wins and their 112 are the best offerings from each league. These are the teams that should be here. It feels right, even if I'm still surprised at our performance this year. The Padres finished 1st or 2nd in all hitting categories in the NL. They had the NL's best pitching staff. We share these accolades in the AL. It's an absolute showdown. They are led by C.J. Abrams and Fernando Tatis Jr. on offense. We are led by Willi Castro, Evan White and Yaya Chentouf. Our pitching staff is anchored by Mize, Rocker and Manning, while theirs is headlined by the even better Mackenzie Gore and Luis Patino. Gore featured a ridiculous 1.49 ERA this season. The next best mark in the league was a 2.62. Rocker's 2.87 led the AL. Gore is insane. He's scheduled for Games 3 and 7, while Patino is ready for Games 1 and 5. Our star power is more balanced, but theirs is higher. It's juggernaut versus juggernaut. It's the World Series!
Game 1 - Tigers def. Padres, 5-0 What a start we have here, with Mize throwing a gem - giving up just four hits and no runs over 8 innings. Genesis Cabrera closed down the 9th for us. Patino was nearly as good, going six innings and only allowing one run on two hits - a solo homerun by Jordan Diaz in the 1st inning. We didn't know that would be enough at the time, but the offense added four more runs against the San Diego bullpen, highlighted by Chentouf's two-run dinger. We needed this win against Patino and Mize delivered. We have Manning versus Gore in game two, as both were moved up in the order due to getting enough rest, it should be a tough one for our offense.
Game 2 - Padres def. Tigers, 2-0 Well, I knew it'd be tough - I was hopeful we'd get on the board, but we could only manage three hits. Gore went the distance, complete game shutout, striking out six and walking none. He's just too good. Manning only surrendered two, but that was enough. De Geus and Kelly were solid out of the pen. The extra day of rest means that Rocker is available for Game 3, which is good news for us.
Game 3 - Padres def. Tigers, 7-1 Well, shit. We only managed one run, which was unearned, but the Padres got ahold of Rocker in the 6th, chasing him and then putting up three more runs on Zack Hess. We really needed this one, Rocker gave us the advantage and we just didn't have it on either side here. We've got Luke Weaver facing off with Dylan Cease next.
Game 4 - Padres def. Tigers, 10-5 Weaver was decent, enough to keep us in it, but Levi Kelly got blasted for five runs. He's been good all year and in the postseason, so it hurts, but it happens. We put up five runs and couldn't get a win, the type of game we've won all year by relying on our bullpen. This one hurts - we're definitely on the ropes now and are win or go home the rest of the way. It's an uphill climb.
Game 5 - Padres def. Tigers, 4-3 What can you do? Mize was decent, Patino was decent and we went into extras. We just gave up a run and then couldn't get one as an answer. We fought, taking it into the 11th, and came up short. Our best versus their best, they just came out on top. Fernando Tatis Jr. was named World Series MVP.
Full Playoffs
Detroit Achievements

RP Levi Kelly wins Rookie of the Month for April.
SP/RP Genesis Cabrera, SP Casey Mize, RP Levi Kelly, RP Brett de Geus, 2B Willi Castro, LF Evan White and RF Yaya Chentouf are named to the All-Star game.
SP Justin Powell, C Dale Burton and RF Ronnie Ruth are named to the All-Star Prospects game.
RP Levi Kelly wins Rookie of the Month for June.
SP Kumar Rocker wins Pitcher of the Month for June.
SP Casey Mize wins Pitcher of the Month for July.
SP Kumar Rocker led the AL in ERA, K/9 and H/9.
RF Yaya Chentouf led the AL in RBI.
2B Willi Castro led the AL in OBP.
SP Casey Mize led the AL in Wins.
RP Brett de Geus led the AL in Games and Holds.

Season Recap

We finally won the division. We were the best team in the American League. We made it out of the Division Series and all the way into the World Series. We ran into a buzzsaw. It happens. We were the 2nd best team in the entire league and we came in 2nd place to the best team in the league. I suppose you can't be too mad at that. It's frustrating for sure, but it's baseball - we'll find a way to get back.

Hitters

Starting Lineup
3B Isaac Paredes
Paredes gave us 3.6 WAR, nearly matching his 4 WAR season from the year prior. Which, seems pretty good. When you factor in that he missed two months with injury and only played 92 games, it's pretty incredible. He was having an even better year and while his arbitration number will go up, I think he's probably good to stay around until he doesn't have arbitration years left. His personality traits aren't great, but he's only 26.5 and still playing solid.
CF Kyle Isbel
I give up on Isbel. Three seasons I've thought his ratings would make up for what I was seeing on the field. Well, now the ratings have slipped a bit, probably to a more accurate level - he just doesn't hit as well as I'd hoped, nothing like how he raked in the minors. I'll try to move him this offseason or non-tender him. My owner wants me to upgrade in center field and I want to also.
2B Willi Castro
What more can I ask of Willi? He has literally gotten better every season that he's played for me. He's signed for the next five seasons and that might come back to bite me, but he's been the franchise's key piece ever since I took over and is crucial to our success. He gave us 8.4 WAR this season, right after a 7.4 WAR campaign last year. His bat was awesome this year and he played solid defense again, though I don't think he'll repeat as gold glove at second.
RF Yaya Chentouf
This will be a bit of a trend this season, but, Yaya improved on an already impressive year last year, bumping his WAR by 1 to 6.4 this year. His bat was almost exactly as effective and he improved in the field. He's one of my favorite finds for this team and though he's gotten off to a start at an older age, he's still on a minimum and could be around for a long time if the power holds on.
DH Riley Greene
Greene was a much better DH than Isbel was last year and isn't in need of replacement (like Isbel). He's also a more than capable fielder, playing 50+ games in left this year. His WAR wasn't as high as last year, but he was also in the field all of last year, so I'm not too surprised. He's young and has a cheap contract, while also playing well. No complaints here.
1B Ryan Mountcastle
Remember that trend? Mountcastle had his best year yet! Nearly 5 WAR as a 1B is a pretty sweet deal. The bat was on fire this year and wasn't even that far off of his average BABIP, so it could be sustainable. He's gonna get a sizable contract bump in arbitration, but he had a career year, so I can't let him get away just yet.
LF Evan White
Evan White is back baby! He was helped out by a super high BABIP in the early years, which definitely came down, but damn if I don't love a 6 WAR Evan White. He was great in left and even above average in center field too. He continues to be a cheap and controlled contract, so he'll definitely be back.
SS Ke'Bryan Hayes
The trend! Hayes had his best year yet, finally getting some BABIP luck. Finally an above average hitter, he was also a much better fielder in his 2nd full year at shortstop. In fact, my owner wanted me to upgrade at shortstop... from Hayes. Hayes completed the goal - upgrading from himself. I'd say a 0.6 WAR to 4.1 WAR jump will do that for you. It's nice to have him back.
C Christian Vazquez
What can you say about Vazquez? He doesn't hit. He doesn't even field that well. But I look at my pitching staff and how I featured the least runs against, best rotation and best bullpen and I can't help but put a lot of the credit on Vazquez. He's got a cheaper team option for next year, which I'll likely be executing to bring him back. The defense hasn't fallen off and that's all he's here for.
Bench/Replacements
C Drew Romo
He was terrible at the plate, great in the field and replaces most of what Vazquez does for the pitching staff. He'll continue to be my backup.
3B Jordan Diaz
Diaz was less of a backup and more of a full-time starter - he played in about 20 more games than Paredes due to Isaac's injury. He was good in that time, a league average hitter and fielder at third. If I do decide to move on from Paredes, the drop to Diaz really isn't that bad. He's cheap and controlled for longer.
RF Luis Matos
Matos was a much better hitter this time around and I trusted his ratings even though he had been bad in AAA last year. He's still young, he's still cheap, but he's a solid outfielder and a good bat. I like having him around.
2B Addison Barger
Barger got called up while Paredes was hurt and was serviceable. He's not the world's worst second baseman, but not someone I want out there every day. He's been tearing up AAA though, so he needs a shot somewhere.
LF Sammy Siani
Sammy was acquired at the beginning of my tenure and has tore it up at every level. He was great in AAA last year and I just didn't have a spot for him, but I brought him up when I had a roster space and he performed decent-ish in a tiny sample size. He needs more playing time, but I'm loaded in the outfield. He's fragile, so maybe I see if he has any value.
DH Bryant Packard
I got so tired of Isbel that I called up a 2nd DH. Packard was good enough that he might get the nod next year if I don't find something better. He was above average in 44 games, nearly a full WAR and if he can keep that up, he's valuable. He can't play in the field at all though.

Pitchers

Rotation
SP Casey Mize
Mize was one of the few players who wasn't "better" than the past season, but he was still a dang good pitcher. He gave us 5.4 WAR, led in wins and was one of the AL's best. He has insane contract demands and I don't think there is any way I can meet them, so he'll likely be gone, but should net me a pick. I hate to lose him, but I just can't bring him back.
SP Kumar Rocker
Rocker makes losing Mize hurt quite a bit less. He's on a minimum and in his sophomore campaign he quietly replicated his incredible rookie campaign, posting a 4.7 WAR and leading the AL in ERA, K/9 and H/9. I mean, yes? That's more than I can ask for. He's likely the team's ace next season.
SP Matt Manning
The Robin to Mize's Batman, Manning took a third seat this year to Rocker, but could be back in the sidekick role next year. He cranked out a 4.4 WAR season after missing much of last year to injury and while he'll command a high arbitration amount, I don't think I can lose him and Mize in the same offseason.
SP Luke Weaver
I expected Weaver to be better for us than he was for Colorado and I was right. The FIP came down a bunch and the luck went right with it to give him a 3.1 WAR season for us as a fourth starter. I'm happy with that. He was a rental though and won't be back next year. He might net me a pick.
SP Jackson Phipps
Phipps wasn't cutting it early on in the rotation, but he transitioned to the pen well. Then he got hurt, so he didn't get to finish out the season, but he gave us 1 WAR in 39 appearances. He was as good for us as he was in Oakland, so I still feel like he'll pan out and should get some more looks next season.
Bullpen
RP Jorge Alcala
Alcala was basically just as good for me as he was for the Athletics, which is what I had hoped for. He was a bit unlucky on BABIP comparatively, jumping 30 points, but he was still a 1.4 WAR pitcher in relief. I'll take it, but I don't know if I want to pay him nearly 4M in arbitration.
RP Genesis Cabrera
Cabrera has had an interesting road with me. He was pulled up in 2022 and was a 33 game starter, posting a 3 WAR. Then he suddenly just couldn't cut it in the rotation and became a nearly full-time reliever. He wasn't great at that, but I gave him another shot and he performed well last season. He got off to a hot start this year and when Phipps struggled, I gave him another shot. His ERA was unlucky as a starter, but he pitched well all season as evidenced by his 81 FIP- and 4.04 FIP. It was his best season in the majors yet from that standpoint and he gave us 2.5 WAR with 24 starts and 16 relief appearances. The arbitration estimate is cheap and I probably need him to fill a slot in the rotation next year, especially as my only lefty right now.
RP Kyle Dohy
There is always at least one - a reliever who was solid and suddenly can't cut it anymore. This year, Dohy fits that bill. He was awful and I didn't give him much of a leash either. Then he wasn't good in AAA either. At 29, he may be on his way out.
RP Zack Hess
Hess was about the most unlucky guy in the league. He had a 6.04 ERA, but his FIP was a 4.00 and his FIP- was an 81. He was good. It just didn't fall right for him. He's cheap and still solid, I bet he bounces back.
RP Connor Jones
Jones didn't really perform like Alcala did as far as trade returns go. He certainly wasn't bad, in fact he was good - I just had hoped for more I suppose. He's a high movement pitcher who gave up a career high in homeruns. That's concerning.
RP Levi Kelly
Levi Kelly was pretty unlucky in a brief stint with Arizona last year, but seemed solid to me. Well, he wasn't unlucky for us and was even more dominant. A 2.67 FIP and 54 FIP- tell the tale. 2.9 WAR reinforces it. He was a stellar reliever, one of the league's best - getting an All-Star nod and was a two-time Rookie of the Month.
RP Jack Little
Jack wasn't that great in 22 appearances and got sent down. He didn't see the field much and is Fragile now. I don't think he's gonna be sticking around.
RP Gerson Moreno
Moreno was better this year than last, but, he also only saw 11 outings. That was a result of a loaded bullpen that saw him become a specialist only - a role he was good at, but wasn't needed as much. I'm not sure if that's worth keeping around or not, but he's a solid reliever nonetheless.
RP Brett de Geus
Brett gave us 2.2 WAR last year and I said we'd give him more opportunities - that usually goes bad for me. This time it didn't, he answered in kind and gave us 3.0 WAR in 78 appearances. He'll continue getting opportunities.
RP Michael Bienlien
Michael got called up late due to his AAA performance. He wasn't bad, but it's a small sample size.
RP Jonathan Bowlan
I should've learned last year. I'm done with Bowlan, I don't care how good he does in AAA. He's gone.

Prospect Watch

SP Justin Powell - Well, it was only R+, but he was solid finally. He's the #1 rated prospect in the MLB right now. He's Fragile. He has low work ethic. I don't know what to do with him. He looks like he should be incredible. Should be. A big if he develops into his ceiling. If he stays healthy. I don't want to flip him because he could be a superstar, but, there are so many red flags.
RF Ronnie Ruth - Take a look at how Ronnie progressed this year. If he hits that hitting tool ceiling? Look the heck out. The personality information isn't great, but at least it's not work ethic or intelligence, but the hit tool looks otherworldly. He'll be in A+ for sure. BNN ranks him 11th.
SP Zach Stephens - The new draftee performed in A- and will go to A right away. BNN says he's the 87th best prospect.
3B Alex Santa Cruz - An IFA signing in 2023, Cruz was in the DSL this year and played well. He'll jump stateside to a rookie league or perhaps R+, but BNN likes him inside the top 100 and the hit tool and run tool are awesome. Defense leaves a bit to be desired though.
SP Doug Wade - Wade didn't pitch that well in A, but he'll go up to AA and we'll see what he has. He looks like he's got some major league pitches already and keeps the ball in the park.
SP/RP Rolando Sirit - Rolando was thrown to the wolves in A+ and never stood a chance. I've remedied that issue, but he wasn't there again and instead dominated in AA. He's right on the line between starter and reliever, but he looks pretty solid right now and could feasibly be in the bullpen for the Tigers next year.
SP Ryan Hagenow - Ryan had a down year in AA 2 years ago but was solid in AAA this year. Does he deserve a shot at the major league level? Perhaps. Will I need him up? Possibly. I think there is a good chance we take a chance on him for the Tigers in 2026.
RF Ismael Mena - Mena was great in AAA after being good in AA too. He's progressed nicely and my scout thinks he's basically a league-average hitter and fielder while being a great baserunner. The trouble is finding a spot for him in the majors, but he might be ready to try.
CF Petey Halpin - My 2nd round pick in 2020 has finally made his way to AAA and performed well. He carried a high BABIP, but, he was well above average so that should even out. Again, he's an outfielder and I have a plethora of them right now, so I don't know what to do about that or how to get him in the lineup, but I'd like to somehow.
RP Mel Rodrigues - Mel has been starting, but he's really a reliever. He could be a great one. I just wish he'd stop throwing the changeup! He's almost ready right now, but he hasn't thrown above A-. I'll plug him into A+ next year and see how that goes.
RP Isaiah Magwood - Magwood looks ready right now according to my scout. He was unlucky in AA, but was solid. He might find his way into the bullpen at the major league level, if not he'll try AAA.
OF Mike Gode - Gode continued his good progression and will go to AA. He looks like a solid bat, but he's bad in the field, so that'll be an issue.
LF/P Cole Wagner - I know that I should just convert Wagner to a full-time hitter, which he does seem better at, but he keeps pitching well at every level too, so I'll keep him going to AAA. I know he probably won't be a two-way player forever, but the dream is still alive!

Future Outlook

My payroll continues to trend upward. We're going to lose Mize and Weaver. We have some choices to make about some minor league players who look ready but may not have slots open. We went to the World Series on a budget and we still have one of the league's lowest, so we still have to pinch pennies.

batting average by count and pitch type video

The pitch count adjustment factor (generalized for all pitchers) is a statistic that must be measurable per pitch rather than tracked per at-bat or inning, so we cannot use batting average, on-base percentage, or earned run average. The statistic should also be distinct for each outcome because a starting pitcher’s ability to efficiently minimize balls, hits, walks, and runs and productively The 2-1 pitch can be considered a "neutral" count for all practical purposes, and the 3-2 pitch, while producing a probable batting average of only .190, does have a .420 OBA expectation due to the .284 probability of drawing a walk. All other counts are distinctly favorable to the pitcher. Batting Average by Count and Pitch Type Fact and Fallacy M any baseball coaches, sportswriters, and tele-vision announcers have commented on the fact that batting averages are low with two strikes or high with less than two strikes. For example, Thomas Boswell, in an article he wrote criticizing Ted Williams' theory that you should take the first pitch, noted that "an analysis of nearly 100 of For the third straight year, we’re opening up the scouting report and enlisting the help of Statcast to determine last season’s most dangerous sluggers by each pitch type. Our metric of choice is expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) , which goes a step further than batting average or slugging by considering strikeouts, walks and quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle). Pitch types have been evolving for decades now, and each type has ridden its own trend wave throughout major league history. The sports buffs over at Fanatics decided to take a deeper look into this pitch data by visualizing every pitch type from the 2016 season so far as well as the stats on all pitches since 2008. Read on to explore the The pitch count should have a direct impact on each swing you take at the plate. Certain pitch counts favor the hitter and certain ones favor the pitcher. Just as the smart pitcher takes advantage of the times he is “ahead in the count,” the smart hitter understands when he has the advantage. In these situations, the hitter must capitalize. Or, at least, give it his best. If you are ahead Guess the Pitch Type. Statcast Glossary. Exit Velocity (EV) How fast, in miles per hour, a ball was hit by a batter. Launch Angle (LA) How high/low, in degrees, a ball was hit by a batter. Barrels. A batted ball with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle Hard Hit. Statcast defines a 'hard-hit ball' as one hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. Sweet Spot. a batted Team Batting Stats 2020 table in the splits section, Pitch Types, which shows the percentage of pitches each pitcher throws on any particular count. Here’s what the MLB averages looked like in 2009: As you might have suspected, as the count gets more in favor of the pitcher, out come the breaking pitches. And typically, the more behind the pitcher gets in the count, the more fastballs Batting average analysis, more than interesting statistics, a treasure chest of information to help hitters develop a positive plan for each plate appearance. If you think back to most any baseball game that you watched, professional or amateur, you can no doubt recall some hitters who had some terrible looking plate appearances. Quite often they go somewhat similar to this. The hitter steps Batting average by count and pitch type: fact and fallacy. Link/Page Citation Many baseball coaches, sportswriters, and television announcers have commented on the fact that batting averages are low with two strikes or high with less than two strikes. For example, Thomas Boswell, in an article he wrote criticizing Ted Williams' theory that you should take the first pitch, noted that "an

Mapping All Major League Baseball Pitches

batting average by count and pitch type

batting average by count and pitch type - win

What Was The Best Season Ever by a Reliever? - an Analysis